Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 250444
SWODY1
SPC AC 250442

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN OK TO SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX TO ERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
MID-SOUTH REGION WITH NEUTRAL-WEAK HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE HIGH PW PLUME THAT
WILL EXTEND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  WITHIN
THIS PLUME...SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED...WILL TRACK ENEWD WITHIN SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 30-40KT.

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS MIGRATED INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS INTO
THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF AFOREMENTIONED
EARLY-DAY COMPLEX.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY
SUGGEST ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE
WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED WLY FLOW REGIME.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...SRN PLAINS TO MISSOURI...

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 35KT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND OF TX...ARCING ACROSS WRN OK INTO CNTRL MO.
LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE
DURING THE PERIOD...DESPITE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PLAINS/MISSOURI REGION.  AS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...MEAGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
FOCUSING PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  STRONG SFC HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS FROM WEST TX INTO NRN OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
SHOULD APPROACH 9 C/KM.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEATING...SFC PARCELS
SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP BY
21Z.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SERN KS WHERE AN ELY
COMPONENT IS EXPECTED.  THIS ALONG WITH A FOCUSED LLJ COULD ENHANCE
LOCALIZED SUPERCELL THREAT FROM NRN OK INTO SERN KS.  HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW/PETERS.. 08/25/2016

$$



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