Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL/SRN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN VA/NERN NC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL OH VALLEY TO ATLANTIC
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AZ/LOWER CO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.

...NRN GREAT PLAINS...
A COUPLE SUPERCELLS SHOULD TRACK S/SE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN
A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...A
TORNADO OR TWO...AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MORE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ERN EXTENT PER 00Z BIS/ABR
RAOBS...THESE HAZARDS SHOULD REMAIN SPATIALLY LIMITED AND LIKELY
DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS GREATER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT BECOMES
FOCUSED FARTHER SE OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN AZ...
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SERN AZ IS POSING
AN INITIAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AMIDST STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH 45-KT MID-LEVEL ELYS SAMPLED IN 00Z TUS RAOB.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A DEEPENING COLD POOL WITH THE DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 100-110 DEG AND DEW POINTS AROUND 60 DEG. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO PREDOMINANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A
WWD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER THAT MAY APPROACH THE LOWER CO RIVER LATE
TONIGHT.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
DESPITE NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN 00Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...MODEST BUOYANCY AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD YET
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL HAIL AND
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

...SERN VA/NERN NC...
MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK AHEAD OF A QLCS LIKELY PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVE MODEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR/BUOYANCY IN 00Z MHX RAOB...MAIN
HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE.

..GRAMS.. 07/01/2015




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