Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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453
ACUS01 KWNS 031614
SWODY1
SPC AC 031613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT THIS THREAT IS MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

...TEXAS...
A BAND OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRETCHES ACROSS TX TODAY...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
GULF COAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  OCCASIONALLY...ISOLATED
STORMS WILL SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE MID/LOW LEVEL ROTATION.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
COASTLINE...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE INLAND
PENETRATION BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT AND FORCE THE
BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION.

FARTHER WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE RISK APPEARS
QUITE MARGINAL.

..HART/MARSH.. 12/03/2016

$$



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