Tropical Weather Discussion
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876
AXNT20 KNHC 251106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W from 13N
southward, moving 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 10N
between 34W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 13N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 04N to 10N between 46W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was along 75W/76W from 15N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is moving into the
area of the Monsoon Trough. Convective precipitation: scattered
to numerous strong from 04N to 10N between 76W and 81W. It is
possible that this precipitation is being enhanced by the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 18N
southward across Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward 10 knots.
Convective precipitation: lingering rainshowers in Honduras and
Nicaragua are possible.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 07N17W and 06N26W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N26W to 08N39W and 07N47W. Convective
precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 150 nm on either side of the line 05N09W 05N18W 02N21W
09N35W 08N46W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 04N to 10N
between 46W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, thanks
to a trough that cuts through the U.S.A. just to the east of the
Mississippi River, into the central and eastern sections of the
Gulf of Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, to the S of 26N82W 26N90W 27N95W 27N97W.
Scattered strong is in Mexico between 97W and 100W from 20N
southward. Multilayered clouds and lingering/weakening
precipitation are in the areas that are to the S of the 26N82W
27N97W line. A cold front passes through the Florida near 30N82W,
to 29N83W and 25N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front
continues from 25N88W to 20N97W at the coast of Mexico.

A 1012 mb high pressure center is near 27N94W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico to the NW of the
frontal boundary.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FLORIDA: Moderate rain in Brooksville. MVFR and light drizzle
around the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in
Sarasota.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes across Puerto Rico, to 14N71W in the
Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about
120 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. A shear line continues from
14N71W to coastal Panama near 09N82W. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 73W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N77W near the Gulf of Uraba of
Colombia, westward across Panama, and northwestward beyond NW
Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong from 04N to 10N between 76W and 81W, from the Pacific Ocean
coast of Colombia to the Colombia/Panama border, to the coastal
waters of Panama from 10N southward between 80W and 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La
Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet.
Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
continue across Hispaniola for the next 48 hours. The earlier
trough has moved to the east of Hispaniola, bringing with it the
NW wind flow on the western side. A ridge will bring more NW wind
flow to Hispaniola during day two. The ridge will flatten out a
bit, gradually, during day two, and still bringing NW wind flow to
the area. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that an
anticyclonic circulation center will be on top of Hispaniola for
the first 18 hours or so of the overall 48-hour forecast period.
The anticyclonic circulation center will move westward, bring NE
wind flow to Hispaniola for the rest of the time. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center
will be to the NE of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect SE wind flow for the first 18 hours or
so. The anticyclonic circulation center is forecast to move
northward, and then become stretched out/elongated as a ridge,
along a NE-to-SW oriented line. Expect NE wind flow across
Hispaniola for the rest of the forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean upper level trough passes through the
area that is just to the west of the Madeira Archipelago, to
25N27W 20N40W and to 14N50W. The trough supports a cold front
that passes through 32N22W to 27N30W 26N36W and 21N42W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on
either side of the line that passes through 32N20W 28N30W 27N40W
20N50W 18N60W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is within 600 nm to 800 nm to the
SE of the cold front. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high
pressure center that is near 33N46W, to 25N67W, to 24N71W, across
SE Cuba, to 18N83W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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