Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 042351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC THU. A GALE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT AT 0000 UTC FRI AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO AT 0600 UTC THU WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE W OF COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 25N97W. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1800 UTC FRI...AS THE FRONT MOVES SE.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO 2N12W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 0N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-4S BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 1S-
4S BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER AND WARM ADVECTION. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE GULF COAST
FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVEL...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION N OF
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NW
GULF N OF FRONT AT 0600 UTC THU AND FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
1800 UTC FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AT 0000 UTC THU. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PULSE ON AND
OFF FOR THE NEXT48 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
FROM THE EAST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N51W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 27N50W TO 26N57W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N10W. IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-4S
BETWEEN 43W-57W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 35N23W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE PREDOMINATELY N
OF 30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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