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000
FXUS64 KBMX 162027
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

CONVECTION HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING GOING THIS AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB. THE ONLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA STATE
LINE...AND IT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IT SLIDES EAST SOUTHEAST.
THE GFS/NAM ARE FAIRLY ROBUST IN THEIR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA...AS A BROAD UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF MODEL DO
NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND WILL TAILOR RAIN CHANCES
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION AS THE PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A BROAD
UPPER TROF SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AND
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-20. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO WEAK 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES AND RELATIVELY WARM LAPSE RATES ALOFT. NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE PRINTING OUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY FLOODING AT THIS
TIME.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
ALABAMA...BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROF AXIS WILL GET HUNG UP
ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROF AXIS
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING NORTH OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST GETS MUDDLED BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE TEXAS RIDGE
EXPANDS NORTHEAST AND LEAVES AN UPPER TROF AXIS SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE ECMWF MODEL PUSHES THE UPPER TROF AXIS
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TO THE
NORTH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. I AM INCLINED TO FAVOR A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
TROF AXIS...AND WILL ONLY FORECAST 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. WENT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DUE TO
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY POPPING UP THUS FAR TODAY ALONG
SOME MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER
THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AND VIS VFR.

A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL
ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH SO LEFT THE
VC WORDING OUT OF MGM AND TOI AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     68  86  71  83  67 /  30  60  70  70  20
ANNISTON    71  87  72  83  68 /  20  60  60  70  30
BIRMINGHAM  73  87  74  86  69 /  30  60  60  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  73  90  74  86  69 /  30  60  50  70  30
CALERA      72  87  73  85  70 /  20  60  50  70  30
AUBURN      71  87  72  86  70 /  20  50  40  60  30
MONTGOMERY  74  90  74  89  71 /  20  50  40  60  30
TROY        70  89  74  89  70 /  20  40  30  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$