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000
FXUS64 KBMX 182330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS FROM
TOTALLY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. YOUR TYPICALLY CALM BEHIND THE
MCS.

THE TRICKY PART TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE BOUNDARY AND CAN WE
GET THE REDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RIGHT NOW THE
RIDGE AXIS IS SITTING IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
WATCHING THE MOISTURE VIA IR SLIDING AROUND THE APEX. EXPECTED THE
MOISTURE TO BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS DOES PAN OUT LIKE THE
SREF...NAM...GFS THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER MCS LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL WITH MCS AND DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW...BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP THEN WE WOULD LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. WORST SCENARIO WOULD BE IF
WE WIND UP GETTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MCS AND
THEN THE MCS MOVES THROUGH LIKE LAST NIGHT.

CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN...BUT INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM UP IN THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S. BEYOND MONDAY DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT BEEN AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND TO THE WEST OF MGM AND
TOI... HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT FROM ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT ANB... WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
REGARDING MVFR VERSUS IFR CIGS... AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR
MOST SITES... WITH IFR INCLUDED ONLY AT EET BECAUSE IT TENDS TO GO
LOWER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... AND ANB DUE TO PLENTIFUL RAINFALL FROM
SATURDAY MORNING.

77/GLEASON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$