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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190026
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
726 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATED...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP IN
THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNSET...SO ANY RAIN
AREAS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-20. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT TONIGHT AND WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE
LOW LEVELS...THERE WILL LIKELY A ZONE A STRATUS AND FOG ALONG THE
I-20 CORRIDOR FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
STALLING OUT BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AND TROY ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITIES TO MOST OF THE
AREA...BUT WITH MOST FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THERE WILL NOT BE
ANY INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ACTUAL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EXPANSION OF THE TEXAS UPPER RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHEAST STATES REMAIN UNDER A
WEAK UPPER TROF...SO SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY EAST OF I-65.

58/ROSE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

TWO BROKEN LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SINKS INTO THE AREA. HAVE TIMED OUT ACTIVITY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. ALTHOUGH...ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THE SUN
SETS...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP TONIGHT. SURFACE CONDITIONS AND LOW LEVEL REMAIN RATHER
MOIST AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINT EVEN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOOKING BACK TO OUR WEST...THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS DECK FROM CONVECTION ACROSS LOUISIANA THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA. ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IS WEAK. BASED ON WHAT
OCCURRED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LAST
NIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW STRATUS DECK (IFR)
ACROSS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING A
SCT TO BKN CIG OF 300FT AT EET. THIS DECK COMBINED WITH THE CIRRUS
SHIELD COULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING...KEEPING
REDUCED VIS TO LOCALIZED AREAS AND TYPICALLY PROBLEM SPOTS. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY FOR UPDATES/CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  89  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    67  89  65  89  68 /  20  10  10  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  89  69  91  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  65  92  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      68  88  68  90  68 /  30  10  10  20  10
AUBURN      70  86  68  89  69 /  40  20  10  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  88  68  92  70 /  50  20  10  30  20
TROY        71  87  68  90  69 /  40  30  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$