283
FXUS64 KBMX 271741
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over
the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the
surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into
northeast Alabama, but we`re pulling out of the cool season, so
it`s not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures.
Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is
supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a
deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy
this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost
identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the
tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high-
level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will
remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge.
Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed
by another nice warmup into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow
afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

While an upper low lifts slowly northeastward across the Boundary
Waters of Minnesota and Ontario, a secondary shortwave along the
southern end of the trough will move eastward from the ArkLaTex
Monday morning to northern Alabama Monday night. An MCS is
expected to be located over the ArkLaMiss Monday morning, and
will continue to move east-southeastward through the day. It will
encounter a drier low-level air mass as it approaches Alabama and
will also be well ahead of a stalled frontal boundary extending
from the Midwest to the Southern Plains. Therefore some weakening
is expected to occur. Also, with MLCAPE values less than 1000 J/kg
and 0-6km bulk shear only around 25-30 kts, the probability of it
being severe is very low at this time though some gusty winds
will be possible depending on the strength of the cold pool. There
are typical uncertainties regarding the track of the MCS, but in
general expect rain chances to increase in far western Alabama
Monday afternoon and across the northwest half of the area Monday
night in proximity to the shortwave. However, some guidance
suggests a more southerly track that would limit rain chances
further north which will be monitored. Tuesday may be trending
drier depending on the amount of subsidence behind the shortwave.

For the rest of the week, relatively weak and quasi-zonal mid-
level flow will be present southeast of a positively tilted trough
over the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. A few weak
convectively enhanced waves in the westerly flow aloft will
provide chances of a few showers and storms at times but with low
predictability this far out. This will predominately be across the
northwest half of the area, while the southeast half should
remain drier with temperatures near 90 degrees in closer proximity
to ridging extending from the Gulf up the East Coast. Rain
chances may begin to increase by the end of the period as moisture
pools ahead of a cold front sagging southeastward, though this
front is trending slower with each model run.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Some low-level cu and high-level cirrus will pass across the area
through the TAF period, but VFR conditions are expected to continue.
A broad region of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, and a
strengthening low-pressure system over the Central Plains is
contributing to an enhanced pressure gradient and 15 to 20 kt
wind gusts this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast
decreasing to around 5 to 8 kts overnight.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above
critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with
increasing rain chances across north Alabama Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  83  58  85 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    60  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  64  83  62  85 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  65  84  62  85 /   0  10   0  40
Calera      64  82  61  84 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      62  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  63  85  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        63  84  60  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...86/Martin