000
FXUS64 KBMX 162340
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
640 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR INCLUSION OF LIKELY POPS FOR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ORIGINATED FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH LIFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THIS OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. I
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z THIS EVENING...THEN
DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH ENTIRELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE
ALREADY OUT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A CLUSTER OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THRU 02Z.
THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-65...SO NOT TOO
CONFIDENT TSTMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS THE LINE APPROACHES I-65...BUT
INCLUDED VCTS FOR KMGM THRU 02Z. OUTSIDE OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD
TO THE FORMATION OF LOWER CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ACROSS WEST ALABAMA...AND WILL
INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT KTCL...KBHM...AND KEET ONLY.  THE MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT QUICKLY AND BECOME VFR BY 16Z.

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AIR
MASS WARMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

58/ROSE


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$