000
FXUS64 KBMX 221728
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1228 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN WESTERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING...MUCH OF
WHICH IS NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS WE HEAT UP AND UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS OVER THE AREA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS DECENT PARCEL
BUOYANCY IF WE CAN REACH THE UPPER 80S. BEST CHANCES OF THAT
HAPPENING WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS LESS OF AN ISSUE.

FOR THE UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

88


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOSSED OUT THE WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE MCV ACROSS THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CLOUDS HAVE REALLY KEPT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRD OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING BHM...EET...AND TCL STABLE THIS MORNING
AND DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE ANB...MGM AND TOI HAVE HAD
SOME CLEARING THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE WORKING INTO
MGM AND ANB VERY QUICKLY AND SHOULD LIMIT ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL.
REALLY TOI WOULD BE THE ONLY ONE AT A GREAT SHOT AT A
THUNDERSTORM SO I DID GO AHEAD AND THROW IN VCTS...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE OVERALL TIMING AS THE ACTIVITY REMAINS SCATTERED.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS APPROACHING BHM AND
EET...BUT REPORTS HAVE NOT BEEN OCCURRING AND TCL DID NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAIN WITH IT SO WILL JUST KEEP IN VCSH FOR THESE SITES NOW.

COLD FRONT WORK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT...BUT THINKING
THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO DID NOT GO WITH ANY
PREDOMINATE PERIOD FOR RAIN. AGAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED. WILL SEND AMENDMENTS FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS NEEDED.

OVERNIGHT WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC AND KEEP IN MVFR CEILINGS AS
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE AROUND BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ROLLS THROUGH ON THURSDAY BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MGM
AND TOI AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD.

16

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$