000
FXUS64 KBMX 192357
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LUCKILY THE BULK OF THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN FASTER THAN MOST MODELS. WE WILL STILL NEED
TO WATCH THE COLD POOL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD POOL WE ARE ALSO WATCHING A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND MCS IS
IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
FFA THROUGH 7 PM. IN ADDITION WE HAVE INTRODUCED SEVERE INTO THE
HWO AS WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN FAR NORTHEAST AL. THE MAIN WEAKNESS
THAT THE STORMS ARE GOING TO SLIDE DOWN WOULD BE THE OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY 1 AM. AFTER
THAT...THERE IS PLENTY OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE AROUND SO LOW CLOUDS
AND OR PATCHY WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT THE FOG MAY DEVELOP FIRST AND THEN THE LOW CLOUDS WORK INTO
THE AREA. DO NOT SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF LESS THAN ONE MILE SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

FOR MONDAY...DRY EVERYWHERE AS THE HIGH IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE BOARD. ON
TUESDAY...THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE WILL TRY TO GET SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...MORE OF YOUR SUMMERTIME POPCORN VARIETY.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE
AREA. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH...UNTIL A
SECOND FRONT CLEARS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS AGREE ON THIS SO ADDED IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z BEFORE LOW CIGS BEGIN TO
FORM. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CANNON RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KBHM. CIGS AND VIS DIPPING TO IFR LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND AROUND DAYBREAK AS WEAK AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  90  64  88  68 /  90  10  10  10  10
ANNISTON    66  88  66  89  66 /  90  10  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  90  68  90  68 /  50  10  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  92  65  92  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CALERA      67  89  67  90  68 /  40  10  10  10  10
AUBURN      66  88  66  88  65 /  40  10  10  10  10
MONTGOMERY  67  91  66  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
TROY        67  89  64  91  67 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CLAY...CLEBURNE...RANDOLPH.

&&

$$

16/87