000
FXUS64 KBMX 141147
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
647 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WE MOST CERTAINLY DODGED A BULLET ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
YESTERDAY...AS THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION ENDED UP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE COLD POOL THEN MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN ITS WAKE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THE INHIBITING FACTORS THAT WERE
MENTIONED YESTERDAY DEFINITELY PLAYED A PART IN HELPING TO PREVENT
SEVERE STORMS...AS THE MEAN MOISTURE WAS LOW ENOUGH DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO PREVENT THE EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS NECESSARY FOR
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...TEMPERATURES DID NOT RISE AS HIGH AS WAS
FORECAST AND LED TO LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES. THE KBMX 20Z SPECIAL
RELEASE AND THE 00Z RAOB BOTH INDICATED THOSE FACTORS THAT
CONTRIBUTED TO THE OVERALL LACK OF SEVERE CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA.
COMPARING THE 00Z PEACHTREE CITY RAOB...THE MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
700-550MB WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHICH LED TO MUCH STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE END RESULT WAS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA.

NOW ON TO THE FORECAST...THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE U.S. 80 AND INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDORS THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW INDICATED ON MOST SURFACE OBS EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MOST CONVECTION IS NOW LONG GONE DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THE STORMS THAT LASTED LONG ENOUGH
YESTERDAY EVENING WERE ABLE TO STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BE
PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WITH ALMOST CONTINUOUS STRIKES AT
TIMES. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH. CERTAINLY NOT A BAD AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH DOWN INTO THE LOW
AND MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE BUILDS
EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING. THE PESKY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN AND
COULD BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. I`VE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM TREND FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CERTAINLY APPEARED
UNSETTLED AND ON THE WET SIDE...AND TODAY`S GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT OF THAT TREND. A FAIRLY SUBTLE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EJECT
SOUTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND LOTS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AT LEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH BETTER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...BUT MODELS AREN`T QUITE IN
AGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY HOW POTENT THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE AT THIS
TIME. EVEN SO...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND
I`VE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND LOOKS TO BASICALLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH AXIS AND UPPER SUPPORT WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST...THE FRONT COULD LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR 2 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. QPF VALUES AREN`T OVERLY HIGH
AT THE MOMENT...BUT WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IMPACTS DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. POPS WERE KEPT ON THE HIGH SIDE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WPC
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

WITH THE NOW WASHED OUT FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...RAIN
CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE
TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...I`VE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE CLIMO MOS GUIDANCE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND
GONE WITH THE COOLER OPERATIONAL MODEL/WPC SOLUTION INSTEAD DUE TO
THE GOOD OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR TOI/MGM THIS MORNING.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES FILTERING INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE NORTH.
DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT SOUTH...SOME STRATUS IN THE
002-004 RANGE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 025-040.
THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE TO NO CEILINGS BY 14Z. SOME 1-3 VIS
IN BR IN THE VICINITY OF MGM/TOI. THIS WILL ALSO ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES DRYING AND HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS DAYTIME AND SLACKEN OFF AFTER SUNSET.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  59  88  66  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    87  63  88  69  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  87  65  90  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  90  63  92  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      87  64  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      87  66  88  69  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  92  67  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        91  66  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$