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000
FXUS64 KBMX 161535
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1035 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE WORKING OUT FAIRLY WELL. KEPT
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF WEST ALABAMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER LOOKING AT OBSERVED AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. RATHER POOR MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION. TWEAKED TEMPS AND AND DEWPOINTS
FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BKN-OVC
CIRRUSWILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
17Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT CHANCES AT ANY TERMINAL AT TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT FROM THE GULF AFTER 06-07Z ACROSS MGM AND TOI.
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
TCL...EET...AND ANB...BUT WILL INTRODUCE BKN CIGS AS THOSE
LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     83  59  81  61  80 /  10  20  40  40  50
ANNISTON    84  61  81  62  81 /  10  20  30  30  50
BIRMINGHAM  83  65  81  67  83 /  10  20  30  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  84  66  82  68  84 /  20  20  40  20  20
CALERA      83  63  81  65  82 /  10  20  30  20  30
AUBURN      83  63  82  66  83 /  10  10  20  20  30
MONTGOMERY  86  62  84  65  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
TROY        85  61  84  64  87 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/14