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000
FXUS64 KHUN 172328 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Ongoing showers continue to impact northeast AL, bringing light to
moderate rainfall and a low to medium chance of lightning. In
addition to this, a very low chance of gusty winds and small hail
exist in any stronger storms that may form as these showers
continue through the early evening hours.

After the showers move through the area, cloud cover is forecast
to linger overnight. However, there is a very low chance partial
clearing may occur. If so, fog development is likely in those
areas due to calm winds and abundant moisture. The HREF is showing
high chances of widespread coverage of low clouds through the TN
Valley through the morning hours. These may cause lowered
visibilities in higher elevations and subsequent hazardous
driving conditions. Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to
dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A subtropical upper level jet brings increased moisture to the TN
Valley along with embedded shortwaves despite a zonal pattern
moving into the weekend. In response to this, daily chances of
rain are forecast to close out the week.

Thursday, instability is forecast to increase through the day with
highs in the mid 80s. There is a low chance of storms in the late
afternoon/early evening hours, lining up with the greater
instability potential (CAPE 900+ J/kg). If these occur, risks
would include hail, gusty to damaging winds, and lightning. An
unorganized line of storms is forecast to move into northern
AL/southern middle TN from the NW later in the night-- accompanied
by PWATs in the 1.4-1.6" range, which would exceed 90th
percentile sounding climatology per BMX. These showers/storms
would be capable of moderate to heavy rainfall, lightning, and
gusty winds. Confidence remains low in severe potential during
the overnight hours as instability decreases to below 500 J/kg.

Low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers/storms continue through
Friday afternoon as a front moves through the area before
decreasing overnight. Low chances (30% or less) return Saturday.
Temperatures behind the front will be cooling for the weekend with
highs in the 60s-70s and lows in the 40s-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler and more stable air will arrive on Saturday. But zonal flow
and additional shortwaves will push east from TX through the Gulf
states. Chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
(elevated) will increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday
as the strongest of the shortwaves arrives. The rainfall and
clouds will also keep temperatures much chillier than this past
week, with lows in the 40s Sunday morning and only in the upper
50s to lower 60s Sunday. By Monday morning, lows will be in the
lower 40s for most locations. But then, temperatures modify into
early next week as modest mid and upper level ridging takes place
over the southeast U.S., with highs back fully into the 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions have returned to the TAF sites and will persist
through about mid-evening before VIS begins to drop due to fog
development. CIGs will begin to drop as well, with higher
elevations experiencing more of a stratus deck. Expect IFR to LIFR
conditions to develop for the entire area late tonight into the
early morning hours on Thursday. Any fog and low cloud deck will
lift/dissipate through mid-morning, with VFR conditions returning
through late morning. Another round of showers and storms is then
forecast to overspread the local area late Thursday afternoon into
the early evening. Southerly winds will become light overnight
then increase to around 10 knots Thursday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...26