000
FXUS64 KHUN 181801
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
5H UPPER TROF AXIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ERN GA...WHILE AT 8H A
WEAK TROF WAS ALONG THE AL/GA LINE. MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SE. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING
SCT LIGHT SHRA EXTENDING FROM NW AL THRU CULLMAN COUNTY AND INTO
EAST CENTRAL AL...PROBABLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR WEAK
WARM FRONT. ATTM CLOUDS WERE COVERING MOST OF THE TN VALLEY. AS A
RESULT WILL LOWER TEMPS TO ARND 80.

OTHERWISE WITH CAPES APPROACHING 2000...LI`S ARND MINUS 5...OLD
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S...WON`T TAKE
MUCH TO KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCT NATURE OF
PCPN TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS A LITTLE. STILL KEPT LIKELY
POPS IN OUR SRN ZONES...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SINCE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ARND 10000 FT...THERE COULD
BE A CHC OF SOME LARGE HAIL. FINALLY ANY STORM WOULD ALSO HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HVY RAIN.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
CWA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN OLD BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 01Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY
INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDANT
WITH MODELS QPF DATA ATTM...SO WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.