000
FXUS64 KHUN 182000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 IN SOME AREAS...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC REGION...AND IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS ERN TN/NE AL. THE COVERAGE THOUGH HAS BEEN
FAIRLY SCT THUS FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LIFTING TO THE NE. LATENT HEATING
EFFECTS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE ON A GENERAL DECLINE FROM W TO E AS A WEAK RIDGE PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EWD.

UNSEASONABLY WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE STORY GOING INTO
THE NEW WEEK...AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN OUT W MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SFC STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
ERN GULF...AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
LOOK REASONABLE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIP
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM THE W ON SUN...AS DRIER AIR
IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/SW.

THE WX PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE OR UNSETTLED GOING PAST
MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH PATTERN OUT OF THE NRN/MID
PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC
WAVE DEVELOPING INVOF OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO SHIFT EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA...WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
HAVE THIS SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED/THU AND WEAKENING.
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE XPCTED ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH PRECIP THEN TAPERING OFF LATE
THU AND INTO FRI AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE E. ANY REAL COOL DOWN
THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE START OF THE WEEKEND
PERIOD...AS MOD POLAR AIR DIVES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AWAY FROM THE
CWA...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. AN OLD BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 01Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY
INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. NOT REAL CONFIDANT
WITH MODELS QPF DATA ATTM...SO WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  87  68  89 /  40  20  10  10
SHOALS        68  87  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      66  85  66  86 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  64  85  64  87 /  40  40  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   65  84  65  87 /  30  40  10  10
FORT PAYNE    64  84  63  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.