000
FXUS64 KHUN 161651 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1151 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 929 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THRU MIDDLE TN AND
NERN AL WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS OF
CLOUDS AND VIRGA THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE WAVE, PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
TAKEN PLACE IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION AND TEMPS ARE RESPONDING IN KIND
WITH READINGS IN THE U60S-M70S. IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT IMPULSE AND 7H
THETA-E ADVECTION, HIGH BASED -SHRA/VIRGA ARE BREAKING OUT ACROSS MS
AND WERE JUST ENTERING NW AL. DEEPER CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING WAS
OCCURRING IN SRN MS AND SERN LA. THIS WAVE OF VORTICITY AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CUT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THRU THE DAY. WE HAVE
LEFT THE SCHC POP IN, BUT HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AS ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE MINIMAL. A CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON
FORECAST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOULD IMPEDE SFC-BASED CONVECTION.

KULA

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA REMAIN PSBL THIS AFTN DURING PEAK
HEATING. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN SCT SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT, SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS AT BOTH KHSV (AFT 06Z) AND KMSL
(AFT 10Z). VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA OR TSRA
IMPACT THE TERMINALS MORE DIRECTLY, SO STAY ABREAST OF FUTURE AMDS.

KULA

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.