Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 171152 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
652 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today and Tonight: Early morning radars showed an area of showers
and thunderstorms generally along and north of Interstate 20 and
east of Interstate 55. This activity was being supported by a subtle
shortwave that will shift east of Mississippi by sunrise and take
this initial activity with it. There may be a brief lull in the
convection but additional widespread convection is expected by mid
morning that will continue into the afternoon before tapering off
from the northwest. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed a more potent shortwave moving into southwest Texas from old
Mexico that will track east and produce the widespread rain over our
CWA today. This shortwave was already firing up enhanced convection
over the eastern half of Texas. Also noted on satellite imagery was
a potent northern stream shortwave that will deepen the upper level
trough over the northern Plains and Great Lakes region. This will
help drive a cold front south across our CWA this afternoon and
tonight. This will result in our lower levels cooling and drying
while the southern stream shortwaves shifts east of Mississippi. The
rain will taper off from the northwest this afternoon and early
evening. Most of the measurable precipitation will end by midnight
but model consensus suggests an additional subtle wave may result in
a low chance of light rain after midnight in our far south,
generally along and south of Highway 84. The rain and associated
cloud cover will hold temperatures in the 60s today and the cooler
air in the wake of the cold front will send temperatures in the 40s
for morning lows. /22/

Monday through next Sunday...

By Monday, the upper low pressure system is expected to eject
northeast into the mid-Atlantic region. Behind the trough,
northwesterly flow will increase across the area, allowing for drier
and cooler air to infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures on Monday will be well below normal, with highs in the
middle 50s to middle 60s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to the
middle 30s and. Widespread frost potential is looking more likely
early Tuesday morning, which has trigger the need to late season
freeze/frost products. Due to increased confidence, an "Elevated"
risk has been outlooked for central and eastern MS. Temperatures are
expected to fall to 28-32 degrees for a few hours. A Freeze Watch
has been issued for this forecast cycle from 1am - 9am Tuesday
morning. Elsewhere, a "Limited" risk for below freezing temperatures
exists. Additionally, dry conditions are expected Monday through
late Wednesday evening.

Building surface ridging will also increase temperatures through the
week, with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s to middle 70s
by the end of the week. By early Thursday morning into the end of
the week, a closed low progged to develop near the Four Corners will
eject into the Southern Plains, bringing the potential for our next
system. Showers and thunderstorms look to become scattered to
widespread across the region by the end of the week into the
weekend. Another system expected to move across the area on Monday
could bring the potential for some stronger storms. We will continue
to monitor this system as confidence increases. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions were observed along the HWY 82 TAF sites while MVFR
cigs were observed cntrl and south. Radar showed numerous TSRA
over southern and cntrl LA that will result in widespread
-RA with a few -TSRA over the area this morning before tapering
off from the west during the aftn. MVFR conditions are expected
to prevail during the evening but gradually improve by the end of
the TAF period. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  44  57  31 /  80  10   0   0
Meridian      62  42  60  29 /  90  10   0   0
Vicksburg     64  44  57  31 /  70  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   65  48  64  33 / 100  20   0   0
Natchez       65  45  59  33 /  90  10   0   0
Greenville    63  42  53  33 /  40   0   0   0
Greenwood     64  41  54  30 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-055>058-065-066.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/22


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