Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 161136 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
636 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold
front just south of our CWA and a 1019mb centered over the Central
Plains. This surface high will shift southeast while weakening today
and become centered over our CWA tonight. In the wake of the cold
front satellite imagery and surface observations showed plenty of
stratus around 200ft with patchy fog. Models still suggest this
layer of stratus could lower by sunrise and result in areas of dense
fog over most of our CWA. Wl hold off on issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory for now as the north wind across the region may just be
enough to hinder dense fog development. Satellite imagery also
showed a southern stream shortwave tracking across the southern
Plains that will move across our region this afternoon and evening
and help develop convection along the old frontal boundary to our
south. Local radars showed that the measurable precipitation has
ended over our CWA and dry weather this morning will last into the
afternoon but rain chances will initially return across our southern
most zones by mid afternoon and then spread from west to east across
the whole CWA prior to sunrise Sunday. Despite the having the weak
cold front through our CWA, temperatures will continue to top out
warmer than normal today and will continue above normal tonight.
/22/

Sunday through next Saturday...

Sunday morning, rain chances are expected to continue as a broad
lower-level trough stretches into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
bringing a cold frontal boundary into the region. This will promote
southwest flow into the ArkLaMiss region, increasing moisture and
instability. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the early morning into the afternoon hours. The severe
threat is expected to remain low, but a stronger storm or two cannot
be ruled out for the northern portions of the CWA. Additionally,
PWATS > 1.5 inches may promote a heavy rainfall across the southern
portions of MS. The potential for a low end flash flood risk cannot
be ruled out, but with low confidence and low rainfall totals from
this week`s previous storm system, a flash flood risk will not be
advertised. By the evening hours, rain is expected to dissipate into
the overnight, allowing for skies to clear from the north.

By Monday, the upper low pressure system is expected to eject
northeast into the mid-Atlantic region. Behind the trough,
northwesterly flow will increase across the area, allowing for drier
and cooler air to infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures on Monday will be well below normal, with highs in the
middle 50s to middle 60s and overnight lows in the upper 20s to the
middle 30s and. Widespread frost potential is looking more likely
early Tuesday morning, which may trigger the need to late season
freeze/frost products. Due to increased confidence, a "Limited" risk
for frost/freeze will be advertised in this forecast cycle. The risk
is expected to increase as we get closer to the event. Additionally,
dry conditions are expected Monday through late Wednesday evening.

Building surface ridging will also increase temperatures through the
week, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to middle 70s by
the end of the week. By early Thursday morning into the end of the
week, a closed low progged to develop near the Four Corners will
eject into the Southern Plains, bringing the potential for our
next system. Showers and thunderstorms look to become scattered to
widespread across the region by the end of the week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

LIFR cigs along with IFR vsbys wl prevail through 15Z before
improving to just MVFR cigs. MVFR cigs will continue into the aftn
but VFR conditions are expected areawide by 21Z. VFR conditions wl
prevail until after 06Z as widespread -RA occurs and brings
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  57  64  44 /  10  90  70   0
Meridian      75  54  63  42 /   0  80  80  10
Vicksburg     74  57  65  44 /  10  90  70   0
Hattiesburg   78  60  67  47 /  20  60  90  10
Natchez       77  58  65  45 /  20  90  80   0
Greenville    68  57  61  42 /   0  70  40   0
Greenwood     70  55  63  41 /   0  70  50   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/22


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