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000
FXUS64 KJAN 130930
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT ALSO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT`LL AFFECT MAINLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TODAY...WITH WARMING AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80... THEN CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI TO THE MID
50S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND BECOME A BIT MORE
MILD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY ONLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. /19/

WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY...EURO/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN
THAT SLOWER LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DOMINATE. AT PRESENT...COLD
CORE CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ABOUT OVER BAJA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO OPEN
UP AND BEGIN MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SW US.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL
BE VERY WIDESPREAD GIVEN THE ABSENCE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE
NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO CORE.

CONVECTION WILL WANE SOMEWHAT MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
MOVES OUT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN. DESPITE THE RIDGING...HARD
TO RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION THE FURTHER WE MOVE INTO MAY.
INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY MEANS AFTERNOON AIRMASS CONVECTION CAN NOT
BE FAR OFF. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS EAST DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION.  THEY`LL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  51  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      76  47  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     78  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   80  49  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       77  51  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    78  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     77  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26