Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 151832 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
132 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Outflow boundary from overnight and early morning convection has
pushed about as far south as a line from Natchez to Mendenhall to
Meridian as of 930 am. Active convection has been occurring along
the leading edge of the boundary, with elevated showers and some
thunder back to the north in the stratiform precip areas. IR
satellite imagery shows warming cloud tops over a good portion of
the area, but convection across northern LA will need to be
watched as it has been maintaining well. With increasing daytime
heating south of the outflow boundary, instability should tick
upwards through the late morning and early afternoon. We`ll have
to watch any portions of the line that become oriented more
north-east and pose a localized threat for damaging winds and/or
hail. Heavy rain will continue to be possible as well, but the
line is becoming more progressive. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Today and tonight: Local radars showed a band of strong to severe
thunderstorms from Clay county southwest to Attala. This activity
was nearly along and just ahead of a weak cold front that has sagged
into our northern zones. The most intense of these storms may
produce damaging winds and small hail. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out as some segments within the band bow out. In addition
rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour may result in runoff
issues. Back to the west the band of storms was more east-west
oriented along the front is expected to remain subsevere for at
least the next several hours but the activity will have a greater
potential for becoming severe later this morning into the afternoon.

Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a large closed low spinning over southern
California and shortwave rounding the base of the low over the
southern Plains. This shortwave is expected to move northeast across
our CWA in proximity of the sagging cold front to enhance convection
later this morning into the afternoon before shifting east of
Mississippi. Considering the environmental parameters expected to be
in isolated severe storms will be possible over much of our CWA but
place over much of our CWA, there will be at least the potential for
isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts but a greater
potential for severe storm development will lie along and just east
of the sagging cold front. This area is much of our central and east
central Mississippi counties. Again, damaging wind gusts will be the
main threat but hail quarter size and slightly larger along with
heavy downpours will be possible and a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out from late mid morning through mid afternoon. In the wake of the
shortwave tonight the cold front is expected to clear our southern
counties and the measurable rainfall is expected to have ended by
midnight. Cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA tonight and
result in cooler temperatures but morning lows Saturday will still
be well above normal ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower
60s southeast east. Normal lows run from the mid 40s north to the
upper 40s south. Yesterday much of the area reach the low to mid
80s. Today the cloud cover and rain will hold temperatures in the
70s. Normal highs range from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s
south. /22/

Saturday through next Friday...

By Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to temporarily
halt for most of the region as a potent low level low dissipates
into the TN/Ohio River Valley. Lingering moisture from a broad high
pressure just east of the Florida Peninsula will keep instability
increased along and south of the Hwy 84 corridor, allowing for
isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday into
Saturday night. By the late evening hours, a broad low pressure
system ejecting southeast out of central Canada will dip into the
Great Lakes region, which will enable a broad trough to elongate
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Instability and moisture are
progged to increase, creating the potential for scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the CWA on Sunday morning into
the evening, with the greatest potential along and south of I-20. As
of now, expected rainfall totals are estimated between 0.10 - 0.75
inches with some locally higher rainfall amounts. The severe threat
looks to be low and flash flooding seems to be low given the
progressive nature of the system.

By Monday, the upper low pressure system is expected to eject
northeast into the mid-Atlantic region. Behind the trough,
northwesterly flow will increase across the area, allowing for drier
and cooler air to infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Temperatures on Monday will be well below normal, with highs in the
middle 50s to middle 60s and overnight lows below freezing to the
middle 30s. Widespread frost potential is looking more likely early
Tuesday morning, which may trigger the need to late season
freeze/frost products, but we will determine that as the potential
freeze gets closer. Dry conditions are expected Monday through late
Wednesday evening. Building surface ridging will also increase
temperatures through the week, with temperatures topping out in the
upper 60s to middle 70s by the end of the week. By early Thursday
morning into the end of the week, a closed low progged to develop
near the Four Corners will eject into the Southern Plains, bringing
the potential for our next system. Showers and thunderstorms look to
become scattered to widespread across the region by the end of the
week. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A line of TSRA is continuing to push south of the forecast area,
with -RA continuing to fall near several of the TAF sites through
around 00Z Saturday. Winds will generally be from the north
through the period. As rain clears, lowering ceilings and BR will
result in MVFR to IFR conditions developing and persisting through
around 15Z-18Z Saturday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  59  73  57 /  90  20  10  50
Meridian      74  59  75  55 /  90  30  10  40
Vicksburg     73  57  72  57 /  90  20  10  50
Hattiesburg   77  61  78  60 /  90  30  30  50
Natchez       77  60  75  57 /  80  20  20  60
Greenville    70  52  68  55 / 100  10  10  30
Greenwood     70  53  71  54 / 100  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/NF


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