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000
FXUS64 KJAN 160903
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT 24HRS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS THE
CWA...DESPITE THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP MOVING EAST ACROSS E TX AND
SW AR THIS MORNING. CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE IN THE CARDS FOR
FRI-FRI NGT WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR PART OF THE CWA.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF A STORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN TX
PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE ITS PRESENCE...FORECAST
GUIDANCE ALL SUPPORT DISSIPATION OF THE FEATURE. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR PART OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NW AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MODEL DATA ALL INDICATE THAT DRY
AIR ADV BETWEEN 850-700MB WILL KEEP MOST PRECIP AT BAY TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NW AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH AND NEAR THE BEST AREA OF DEEP LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING S/WV. DUE TO THIS...WILL FOLLOW THE GUID POPS OF 40-50%
ACROSS THE FAR NW. HOWEVER...WILL LOWER POPS FOR OTHER AREAS TODAY
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. ONE THING THAT HAS JUST BEGUN TO SHOW UP THAT MAY
THROW A WRINKLE INTO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AC DECK ACROSS THE SW AREAS. THIS IS BASED AT
ROUGHLY 12KFT AND MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. I WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.

FOR FRI-FRI NGT...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AS MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATING HIGHER PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED IN PREV FORECASTS...THE
REMNANT UPPER S/WV WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CWA AND PROVIDING LIFT FOR
MAINLY THE N/NE PARTS OF THE CWA. WHAT SEEMED TO BE SOME LIMITING
FACTORS WAS THE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND CAPPING WHICH WAS BUILDING IN
FROM THE W/SW. SOME OF THAT IS STILL EXPECTED...BUT THERE SEEMS TO
BE LESS OF THOSE LIMITING ELEMENTS FOR SOME OF THE N/NE PARTS OF THE
AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON-FRI NGT. DUE TO THIS...WILL FOLLOW THE MOST
RECENT GUID POPS VALUES WITH SOME TWEAKS UPWARD TO THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE AREA.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG/SVR STORM POTENTIAL. SOME OF THE
FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING
WHICH LOOK TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE S/WV...25-30KTS OF MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT AND SUPPORT POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION
(MULTI-CELL & PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS). AT THIS TIME...HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS AND WILL
BEGIN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS.
ADDITIONALLY...THINGS APPEAR TO BECOME MORE COMPLICATED FOR FRI NGT
A THE EURO CONTINUES TO INSIST ON CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE NGT ACROSS THE NE CWA. THIS ACTUALLY MAKES SENSE AS
THERE COULD BE LEFT OVER SFC BOUNDARIES (IF AFTERNOON STORMS
DEVELOP) WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS AS 850MB WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
WEST AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION GOING INTO THE BACK END
OF WHERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS SUCH A PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
TRAINING OF STORMS. IT WON`T GET TO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS JUST
YET...BUT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR FRI NGT. /CME/

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD...POSITIONED
ACROSS AR EWD NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER BY 12Z SATURDAY THEN FARTHER
NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. HEALTHY CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE BUT A FEW
LEFTOVER SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE SLIPS OUT OF THE AREA AND RIDGING DEVELOPS. WILL UNDERCUT
MEX MOS POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MORNING. MEX POPS WERE CUT AND THE FORECAST WAS LEFT DRY FOR SUNDAY
WHEN CAPPING AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EDGE TO THE EAST MONDAY BUT CAPPING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE EVIDENT LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE EURO PIVOTS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY...INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE USRFACE FORCING WELL
TO OUR W AND N. ALTHOUGH DISCREPANCIES EXIST REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF FORCING THAT WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE AT
LEAST SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECAYING CAPPING.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL NECCESITATE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT CAPE/LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. MEX MOS...REFLECTING A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN...HAS COME
IN RELATIVELY DRY FOR WEDNESDAY ON THIS RUN. WILL ADD ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVER NWRN ZONES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO REGIONS OF
POTENTIALLY BETTER FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNDERGO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
BUT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOLID
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AND DAMP SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
NOT PRODUCE MAXIMUM DAYTIME WARMING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ADVERTISED BY THE EURO WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION THAN IF THE AREA SITS IN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THIS
TAF PERIOD...EVEN AS SOME SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW AREAS.
HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SHOW ITSELF IN THE FORM OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS.
LOOK FOR THIS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 05-07Z AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA BY 09-11Z FRI. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  66  86  70 /  10  11  25  16
MERIDIAN      84  65  86  67 /   9  12  28  30
VICKSBURG     84  67  86  68 /  18  13  23  12
HATTIESBURG   86  66  87  68 /  10   8  12  10
NATCHEZ       83  68  85  69 /  11   9   9   9
GREENVILLE    82  67  84  70 /  45  47  35  30
GREENWOOD     82  66  83  69 /  23  37  40  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/03/