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000
FXUS64 KJAN 121459 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...A DRY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MRNG WITH A NOTED DEWPOINT GRADIENT OF UPPER 30S NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. THIS FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE TO GET GOING ALREADY WITH SOME PERIODIC HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN. HAVE INCREASED WINDS NOW THROUGH THE AFTN AS
ADEQUATE BL MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. SOME CIRROSTRATUS WILL PASS
OVER REGION AND THIS COUPLED WITH DECENT POST-FRONTAL MIXING MAY
HINDER FULL POTENTIAL WARM-UP. AFTN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT IN LOW
70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH FOR A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
MOTHERS DAY.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT WITH AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DIRECTLY BELOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...THE MORNING FOG SE HAS DISSIPATED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 11Z MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT NORTH WINDS
8-12KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TODAY IN WAKE OF REINFORCING DRY
COLD FRONT. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED MONDAY. /22/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY BRINGING A TEMPORARY RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL MAY TEMPERATURES.
AFTER A SUNNY SUNDAY...FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
COULD SEND TEMPERATURES TO NEAR DAILY RECORD LOW LEVELS IN THE LOWER
40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. DID NOT CUT GUIDANCE ANY DUE TO WET GROUND AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AND BECAUSE ALTOCUMULUS COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DISRUPT THE COOLING PROCESS. A FEW
READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING FOR
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...ALONG WITH WARMING
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...
WHILE SLOWLY DRAGGING AN EQUALLY WEAKENING BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA AND EVENTUALLY WASHOUT THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN DECENT CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT LEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH
AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  44  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      76  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     74  44  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   79  46  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       74  44  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    72  46  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  43  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22/EC/19