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000
FXUS64 KJAN 170403 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1103 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE HERE AS A FEW MORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM TOR WATCH 165. ALSO...LATEST NEAR TERM GUID SUGGESTS
PRECIP/STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW/N-CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT PERIOD. DUE TO THIS...HAVE TRIMMED
BACK ON POPS A GOOD BIT FOR CENTRAL AND NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA THIS EVENING SEEMS TO BE
WEAKENING. INSTABILITY IS LACKING THE FURTHER EASTWARD IT TRAVELS
AND THE LATER IN THE EVENING IT BECOMES. A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAIN HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THAT AREA. THE
SOUTHERN FEW COUNTIES AND PARISHES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH.
OTHERWISE, THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT FULLY GONE YET FOR THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE DELTA. PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST MS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. POPS WERE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS UPDATE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE STRATUS SHOULD RESULT IN IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES AT
ALL TAF SITES...WITH SLOW MIXING UP OF CEILINGS AND RETURN TO VFR
CATEGORIES BY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT
GLH/GWO/GTR/JAN/HKS/MEI FRIDAY AS WELL RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. /EC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW CENTER IS FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FEATURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST. PLENTY
OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH FROM THE GULF
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...HELPING TO
INCREASE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

RIGHT NOW THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS HELPING
KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED WEAKER STORMS AFFECTING SE
MS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST INTO ALABAMA BY EARLY
EVENING. THE BIGGER CONCERN IS OFF TO OUR WEST WHERE A POTENT
SUPERCELL IS MARCHING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OUT THERE TO FUEL SEVERE
STORMS...AND THIS STORM HAS INDEED BEEN PRODUCING REPORTS OF HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE AS YOU GO EAST
INTO NORTHEASTERN LA (OUR CWA) AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE GROUND IS MORE
ABUNDANT. THUS...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CELL WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT OR COMPLETELY FALL APART BEFORE GETTING INTO OUR REGION. WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE SITUATION CLOSELY...BUT AS OF NOW DO NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER GETTING INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THERE COULD DEFINITELY BE SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE SYSTEM NEARS. AS WITH STUFF FURTHER SOUTH THIS
EVENING...SOME OF THESE STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA LATE COULD BE
A LITTLE POTENT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL BUT ARE ALSO NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
LOWS WAY UP IN THE 60S. SOME FOG IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE IN SOUTHEAST
MS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE OF THE
MODE COME SUNRISE.

TOMORROW THE UPPER LOW AXIS WILL BE SITUATED IN A WAY WHERE MOISTURE
SHOULD SPILL MORE EFFECTIVELY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. CAPPING WILL INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BUILD AS WELL. ASIDE FROM NORTHEAST ZONES IN MS THIS CAPPING
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME WITHOUT A SOLID TRIGGER...BUT COLD POOL
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION AROUND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY CREEP SOUTH TO PROVIDE SUCH IMPETUS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE LESS IN NE LA AND SW MS IN
COMPARISON TO NE MS...BUT CONDITIONAL CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE GREATER IN THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY
AND HIGHER NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL OF TSTORM DOWNDRAFTS. SHEAR
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR GETTING TRUE SUPERCELL FORMS...BUT A ROGUE
SUPERCELL (MUCH LIKE IS OCCURRING AT PRESENT IN NORTHERN LA) IS
DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THAT KIND OF STORM IN OUR AREA
TOMORROW WOULD POSE A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND STRAY TORNADO
RISK. OTHERWISE...THE LARGER RISK WILL COME FROM THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND EVEN SOME HAIL. THE HWO AND GRAPHICASTS CONCENTRATE ON THESE
RISKS FOR TOMORROW.

ACTIVITY COULD CONCEIVABLY WAIT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
REALLY BREAK OUT VIGOROUSLY IN MANY SPOTS OF THE REGION AND THUS
COULD GO WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION
VECTORS POINTING EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT SUGGEST WE WILL REALLY HAVE TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR HIGHLY CONCENTRATED...BUT VERY
HEAVY...RAINFALL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT UP NEAR
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
COLUMBUS AND MERIDIAN.

BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LOW SHOULD REALLY BE QUITE EAST OF THE REGION
ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN ITS WAKE. IF THAT DOES OCCUR THEN
THIS BOUNDARY COULD TRIGGER AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF MS ZONES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS PERHAPS
GETTING CLOSE TO OR EVEN TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  83  69  89 /  11  43  25  10
MERIDIAN      65  82  65  88 /   5  52  35   9
VICKSBURG     68  84  68  89 /  18  27  19   8
HATTIESBURG   67  86  68  89 /   5  23  15   6
NATCHEZ       68  85  68  87 /  10  19  14   4
GREENVILLE    68  82  68  87 /  80  51  30  14
GREENWOOD     68  81  68  87 /  66  70  41  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN