Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 132355
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
655 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Tonight and Thursday:

Some afternoon showers will be possible before diminishing this
evening. Quiet and mild conditions will stick around for tonight.
Widespread cloud cover is expected to migrate into the region this
evening. Expect low temperatures to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

An active weather period is expected to begin on Thursday. A
deepening cut-off low pressure/longwave trough near western CONUS
will continue to influence downstream ridging over the southeastern
region. As a result, increasing heights and additional warm/moist
air advection will filter in ahead of an incoming cold front. This
will give CAPE values a chance to build heading into the afternoon
with models indicating 2000-3000 J/kg. A shortwave disturbance is
expected to lift northward across the CWA during the afternoon and
evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this
disturbance. Decent lapse rates and CAPE values indicate the
potential for some thunderstorms to be severe. However, organized
severe thunderstorms could be hindered by the increasing heights and
modest 0-6km bulk shear values around 30kts. To account for these
convective parameters, a Marginal risk for severe weather would
primarily along and north of I-20. Prior to any convection,
temperatures will be 15-20 degrees above climatology for the
afternoon. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are
expected. /SW/

Thursday Night through Wednesday:

The threat for isolated storms due to daytime heating will diminish
tomorrow evening, but more organized storms along an approaching
cold front should spread southwards into our area sometime tomorrow
night into early Friday morning. Some strong to severe storms cannot
be ruled out with that activity, but the threat for flash flooding
will become more of a concern as moist air and boundary-parallel
flow allow for some possible training of storms. The primary flash
flooding threat at this time looks to be in northern Mississippi and
southern/central Arkansas through Friday. Additional strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out as the front moves south Friday,
but the confidence drops off quickly as precip and cloud cover will
disrupt some of the mesoscale setup.

The frontal boundary should push farther south Friday evening into
Saturday and should give us somewhat of a lull in storm/heavy rain
potential until Saturday night or early Sunday. In advance of a
better northern stream trough pushing southward, moisture return off
the Gulf and continued southwesterly flow aloft should then increase
moisture convergence once again along the Gulf Coast region Saturday
night into Sunday. Increasing PWATs and favorably oriented Corfidi
vectors suggest this time frame could also pose another flash
flooding risk, though directed more towards central and southern
portions of the forecast area.

The latest few rounds of model guidance keep a closed low pressure
system off to our west through Tuesday at least, and a cold 1025-
1030mb surface high looks to move toward the South. A frost and
light freeze are still expected here as the growing season resumes.
Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics will likely be needed. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and VFR conditions prevail at TAF
sites this evening. Expect these conditions to continue through
much of the night, but status will develop after 09-10Z on
Thursday. Expect ceilings to become MVFR/IFR after 10Z and
continue through the end of the period. The winds will be out of
the south at 5-10kts, with the exception of GLH, where we could
see occasional gusts to 20kt after 07-08Z./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  80  65  76 /  10  40  50  90
Meridian      54  81  64  77 /   0  20  40  90
Vicksburg     62  82  66  75 /  10  50  50  90
Hattiesburg   56  79  65  79 /   0  20  20  80
Natchez       63  82  67  77 /  10  40  40  90
Greenville    63  79  65  70 /   0  50  80  90
Greenwood     61  80  65  71 /   0  50  80 100

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15


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