Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
000
FXUS64 KJAN 131800
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
100 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Forecast remains on track. A mix of cirrus and stratus clouds are
appearing on morning satellite imagery. Southerly flow is expected
to increase throughout the day, bringing warmer air and increasing
moisture to the region. Isolated showers are expected near the
southern portion of the CWA as a weak shortwave progress through the
area. As a result, added PoPs to the southeast portion to account
for the shortwave passage. Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy skies
and afternoon temperatures to be in the middle to upper 70s. /SW/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Today through tonight: Weather impacts will continue to be
minimal in the near term. As has been anticipated, a western
longwave trough to eastern longwave ridge pattern will set up
across the nation. Rising mid level heights and a tightening
surface pressure gradient over the lower MS Valley region will be
accompanied by increased southerly wind and low level moistening.
During peak heating this afternon, weak ascent associated with the
developing warm advection pattern should support isolated
showers, mainly over southwest portions of the area. Otherwise,
not much change is expected in the weather conditions with
temperatures remaining well above climate normals through
tonight. /EC/
Thursday through late next week: Overview: Active weather will be
the main story for the extended period with a warm moist airmass
in place under the influence of an upper ridge, enhanced by a cut
off upper low over the SW CONUS. A series of shortwaves amid this
persistent warm advection regime will be responsible for ongoing
rain and storm chances through this weekend. Given a lack of
height falls and weak deep shear, greater severe threat will be
limited. However, steep lapse rates could aid in some severe
threat where flow is greater, yielding a primary threat for large
hail. A marginal risk is highlighted areawide for Friday to
account for this. In addition, flash flooding will be possible as
PWATs exceed 1.5 inches so storms will be efficient rain
producers. Severe threat will diminish later Friday evenining with
decreasing lapse rates as a cold front pushes cool, stable air
into our area. The following rounds of rain and storms will be
largely conditional pending how the initial round plays out, and
the lack of consistency in the guidance limits confidence in the
details for additional rounds of precip. Will continue to message
a limited risk for flash flooding given lower confidence. We
finally dry out through the day Sunday as a deep trough ushers in
a cold, dry Canadian airmass. With this Canadian high Monday and
Tuesday, frost/freeze appears increasingly likely, especially for
our northeastern areas. Cool and dry conditions stick around
through about mid next week before ridging builds aloft, bringing
a return of warmer temperatures by week`s end. Rain and storm
chances begin to increase again late next week amid this warmer
pattern.
Thursday through Thursday night: A warm moist airmass characterized
by dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 will lift northward through
the day Thursday in response to a deepening surface low across
central Kansas. Within this warm advection regime, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday afternoon. These storms
should remain nonsevere amid weak deep shear. Mid level lapse rates
steepen Thursday night, and deep shear increases to around 40 kts,
suggesting the potential for more organized convection with primary
threats for isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Locally
heavy downpours will also be possible during this time, but
widespread flash flood threat should hold off until during the day
Friday.
By Friday morning, a weak frontal boundary situated across northern
portions of the area will support ongoing convection and will also
be aided by the right entrance region of the upper jet. Continued
moist advection will increase flash flood threat, as PWAT exceed 1.5
inches. Prevailing WSW flow will aid in training storms along the
surface frontal boundary. Greatest flash flood threat during this
time, should be focused along this corridor. A stronger cold front
will push cooler and drier air into the area Friday night, likely
diminishing precip extent across the area. There is still
uncertainty regarding the extent of this cool, dry push, and whether
rain and storms will continue to still be supported during this time.
Saturday through Sunday: There quite a bit of uncertainty at this
time regarding the ability to recover better moisture Saturday
through Sunday. Lack of consistency in guidance limits confidence on
continued flash flood threat, with much of the guidance suggesting
the heaviest rain stays south during this time. There could be some
heavy rain potential in the far southern areas, likely the HWY 84
corridor, where moisture recovery is sufficient and this could carry
a localized flash flood threat. Limited confidence precludes any
upgrade to flash flood threat at this time and will continue to
message a limited threat.
Next week: A deep trough directs a Canadian high south towards the
area Monday and Tuesday and frost/freeze looks increasingly likely,
especially for the northeastern portions of the area. This should be
shortlived, however, as mid to late next week, upper ridging builds
over the area and brings a return warmer temperatures by late week.
Temperatures should return to near or slightly above average with
highs generally in the 70s. Rain and storm chances will begin to
increase around Thursday next week as a shortwave trough ejects
across the southern plains. /SAS/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
VFR flight conditions to start the TAF period.Scattered cirrus and
stratus clouds are currently across the area but visibility and
ceilings are not being impacted. Around 05Z Thursday, cloud cover is
expected begin moving into the region. As a result, MVFR flight
conditions will be increasing possible as ceilings begin to lower.
Towards the end of the TAF period, MVFR flight conditions will be
possible as cloud cover becomes widespread. /SW/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 60 81 65 77 / 10 60 50 90
Meridian 54 81 64 78 / 10 40 50 90
Vicksburg 63 81 65 77 / 0 60 60 90
Hattiesburg 57 81 65 79 / 0 50 30 80
Natchez 62 82 66 77 / 10 50 40 80
Greenville 63 78 65 71 / 10 60 80 80
Greenwood 61 80 66 74 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/SAS20/SW