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000
FXUS64 KJAN 241159 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
659 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Today and Tonight:

Upper-level ridge axis centered over the High Plains and low-
amplitude shortwave trough crossing the Ohio River Valley today will
keep our forecast area beneath northwesterly flow aloft. The
shortwave will nudge a weak cold frontal boundary into the northern
half of our area today. Another upper-70s to lower-80s day puts us
right about normal for this time of year, and the slight uptick in
moisture values will allow for isolated showers or storms to develop
in the pooled moisture ahead of the front. With meager instability
(500-1000 J/kg) for air mass thunderstorm potential in place along
the moisture axis, long-lived convection is generally not expected,
but there is a little flow aloft that should result in around 30 kts
of deep-layer shear to help a few storms sustain during the
afternoon hours. With expected isolated nature of convection, left
the slight-chance to chance POPs areas generally as suggested by
guidance (north of I-20). Continued moisture advection into tonight
could yield some fog potential for early Thursday morning in the
south. /NF/

Thursday-Tuesday:

A weak cold front will linger in northern portions of the CWA,
before transitioning into a warm front and lifting northward on
Thursday. As a result, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for areas along and north of I-20 during the afternoon. On
Friday, quiet and dry conditions are expected as an upper-level
ridge begins to build over the southern CONUS. Increasing moisture
and warm air advection is expected due to southerly flow and will
continue into the weekend.

A few shortwaves are expected to move along the edge of the ridge,
bringing isolated showers and thunderstorm potential back to
northwest MS, southeast AR, and extreme northeast LA Friday night
into Saturday. Outside of those areas, conditions will remain quiet
ahead of the next frontal boundary moving in from Texas. A low
pressure center near the northern Plains and MN will push an
associated cold front towards the area, resulting in showers and
thunderstorms starting west of I-55 Sunday afternoon. With bulk
shear around 20-30 kts, lapse rates near 7 C/kg, and SBCAPE
between 600-1500 J/kg, severe weather can`t be ruled out; however,
confidence is low. SPC has outlooked potential severe weather to
the west of the CWA and we will continue to monitor for changes.
By Monday and into Tuesday, showers and thunderstorm potential
will cover the rest of CWA. At this time, no severe weather is
outlooked for these days, but that could change as the timeframe
gets closer. The aforementioned cold front is expected to push
through our area by Tuesday evening. Weekend temperatures are
expected to reach the middle to upper 80s and slightly decrease to
the upper 70s to lower 80s post frontal passage. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
all sites, however there is a slight chance for patchy BR or FG to
develop near KHBG and KPIB after 09Z Thursday. Confidence in
impacts to the TAF sites was too low to mention at this time.
Isolated SHRA or TSRA could develop across portions of the
forecast area today, but impacts are generally not expected. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  60  82  62 /  10  10  20   0
Meridian      80  57  83  60 /  10  10  20   0
Vicksburg     80  62  83  64 /  20  10  10   0
Hattiesburg   83  59  85  61 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       80  61  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    78  62  79  65 /  30  10  30   0
Greenwood     78  60  79  64 /  20  10  30   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/SW