305
FXUS64 KJAN 062011
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

This Evening through Tuesday:

Despite SBCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg indicating an
unstable air mass across our forecast area, a shortwave ridge
aloft has been suppressing convection and limiting deep-layer wind
shear so far today. A trough however is apparent over East Texas
on water vapor satellite imagery, and this has helped at least a
few isolated storms develop to the west. Isolated to scattered
showers or storms are still possible through early this evening,
but organized severe weather is not expected at this time. Into
tomorrow, a trough swinging across the Plains is expected to shift
a plume of better instability into our area, and showers and
thunderstorms are expected mainly in eastern Mississippi during
the afternoon/evening hours. With increased flow aloft, there is a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to develop in this
activity. /NF/

Tues Night through Sunday:

Lingering rainfall from the daytime will gradually come to an end
for extreme northern and northeastern portions of the CWA as the
weak shortwave exits the area. Warm/humid conditions will begin to
filter in thanks to southerly flow, causing dewpoints to reach the
lower 70s and above-average high temperatures in the the upper 80s
to lower 90s and low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s in
the mid-week.

A more active pattern is expected for Wednesday night through early
Friday morning. A low pressure center is expected to progress
eastward towards Great Lakes, in turn pushing cold front towards the
southeastern CONUS on Wednesday. Ahead of the frontal boundary, a
warm/moist airmass will be in place to help promote showers and
thunderstorms. Along with sufficient moisture (dewpoints in the
lower 70s), bulk shear values of 50-60 kts and Surface CAPE values
of 3000 to near 4000 J/kg will help support organized convection and
severe weather potential Wednesday night through Thursday night. A
"Slight" and "Marginal" risk for severe weather will continue to be
advertised in the HWO graphics.

The aforementioned cold front is expected to push through the CWA on
Friday, bringing rain chances to an end by the afternoon hours. To
close out the extended forecast, post frontal passage along with a
surface high pressure center will bring below-seasonal to seasonal
temperatures and drier air to the area through the weekend. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered to broken cumulus deck has lifted to prevailing VFR
range across the forecast area to start the TAF period. Winds will
occasionally gust to around 20 kts, and isolated SHRA and TSRA are
possible. Some confidence in impacts near KHBG and KPIB warranted
an inclusion in the TAFs, but amendments may be necessary if
storms are expected to impact any of the other sites before 00Z
Tuesday. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop again after
06Z Tuesday and prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  87  71  90 /  20  30   0  20
Meridian      66  89  70  92 /  20  50  10  20
Vicksburg     69  87  71  90 /  20  20   0  10
Hattiesburg   68  88  72  90 /  20  30   0  10
Natchez       68  87  71  90 /  20  20   0  10
Greenville    72  86  73  89 /  20  20  10  20
Greenwood     70  86  72  89 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/SW/NF