000
FXUS64 KJAN 112024
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION..

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ONGOING THIS AFTN ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING.

A WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED ALONG A KGTR TO
KTVR TO KLCH LINE THIS AFTN AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS 1.3-1.6"
AND S/WV TROUGH PIVOTING OVERHEAD, WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS ACROSS E-CNTRL AND SE MS. WHILE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POOR LAPSE RATES WILL
PRECLUDE INSTABILITY FROM REACHING LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
STORMS. LATEST LAPS INDICATES 500-700 J/KG SBCAPE. SO FAR THIS AFTN,
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO EVEN PRODUCE LIGHTNING. ACTIVITY WILL WANE
AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE/POTENCY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.

A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW-LVLS WILL BE TO DRY AND CONVERGENCE TO WEAK FOR SHOWER
GENERATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. ONLY EXPECT A SMALL BAND
OF CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUN MRNG. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY MONDAY MRNG. THESE VALUES,
COUPLED WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SFC HIGH RIGHT
OVER REGION, PROMOTING NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO MAV WHICH WAS MUCH COOLER THAN MET. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
TEMPS HITTING OR FALLING WITHIN 1-2F DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. ONE CAVEAT TO THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL SET-UP
WOULD BE WET SOIL MOISTURE CONDS THAT KEEPS DEWPOINTS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO FROM FULL POTENTIAL FROM IN SITU AIRMASS. QUICK TEMP REBOUND
EXPECTED MON AFTN HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AS READINGS PEAK
UP INTO MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...POPS WERE BUMPED UP QUITE A BIT FOR THIS
AFTN PERIOD AND LINGER A TOUCH THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT BEFORE ALL
REMOVAL OF POP/WORDING OCCURS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAV
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...
WHILE SLOWLY DRAGGING AN EQUALLY WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...WHILE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...FORCING...SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES LOOK PRETTY
INADEQUATE WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT.  WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...CHANCES
FOR ANY STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY LOOK QUITE LOW. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT JUST NW OF HKS AND JAN AT 18Z WILL DRIFT SE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE MEI TO HBG. MVFR
CEILINGS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT 18Z BUT WILL LIFT UP ABOVE 3000FT BY
MID AFTN. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE. SOME FOG AND IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HBG 10Z-14Z SUN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER 14Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  73  43  77 /  10   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      51  73  40  75 /  11   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     53  72  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   57  76  44  80 /  17   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       55  72  44  78 /  11   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    51  70  46  76 /   7   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     49  70  42  76 /   8   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/19/22