Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
AXUS74 KJAN 072244 CCA
DGTJAN
MSC001-007-011-015-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-049-051-053-055-063-
067-075-077-079-083-087-089-091-099-101-103-121-125-127-133-149-151-
157-163-LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-ARC017-041-120000-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
545 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016


      ...SEVERE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
         MISSISSIPPI IN THE WFO JACKSON CWA INCLUDING ALL OF GRENADA AND PORTIONS
         OF LEFLORE, CARROLL, MONTGOMERY AND WEBSTER.

      ...MODERATE SHORT TERM DROUGHT COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, AND NORTH CENTRAL
         MISSISSIPPI. THE DROUGHT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE JACKSON METRO AREA TO SOUTHWEST
         MISSISSIPPI AND EXTENDS INTO LOWER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

      ...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINING JACKSON WFO AREA
         WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, PARISHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
         INTERSTATE 20 IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES.



SYNOPSIS...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WFO JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE LAST 7 DAYS. EVEN WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL HAS LEFT SOME AREAS
WITH FAIRLY LARGE RAINFALL DEFICITS.

IN THE LAST 30 DAYS, RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLAIBORNE COUNTY TO
SMITH TO CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY IN MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL HAS BEEN BETWEEN 20 TO 60 PERCENT OF
NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD HAVE EXTENDED INTO NORTHERN
WASHINGTON, SUNFLOWER, AND BOLIVAR COUNTIES IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT
IN THE LAST 7 DAYS. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ALSO EXPERIENCED VERY SPOTTY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 20 TO
60 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI,
NORTHERN PARISHES OF LOUISIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM
DETERIORATING; HOWEVER, IF WE GET LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES, WE CAN EXPECT
TO SEE THIS AREA DROP INTO AT LEAST MODERATE DROUGHT.


AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

AS WAS THE CASE LAST YEAR, WET FIELDS IN THE SPRING HAVE TURNED INTO VERY DRY ONES IN
THIS EARLY TO MID SUMMER SEASON. THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING HEALTHY
HAY FIELDS IN ONE PORTION OF A COUNTY WHILE THE OTHER IS HAVING ISSUES PRODUCING ENOUGH
FOR GRAZING. CROP IRRIGATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AND OTHER AREAS WHERE THEY
ARE ABLE TO DO SO. THE MOST SEVERE PROBLEMS ARE OCCURRING IN GRENADA COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
THE SURROUNDING ONES. POND LEVELS HAVE DROPPED OVER 2 FEET. LOSSES ARE MOUNTING ON PASTURELAND
AND THE CORN CROP. HAY FIELDS HAD A VERY LOW YIELD OF THE FIRST CUT.

FROM MADISON TO NORTHERN RANKIN, NORTHERN SCOTT, AND LEAKE COUNTIES, THERE ARE REPORTS
OF GRASS TURNING BROWN, GROUND CRACKING, AND THE LEAVES ON SOME TREES STARTING TO CURL
AND FALL OFF. THE CORN CROP IS ALSO SUFFERING. MANY FARMS ARE FEEDING HAY
TO THEIR CATTLE BECAUSE THE FIELDS ARE TOO DRY. THIS AREA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING BORDERLINE
MODERATE CONDITION TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. UNLESS RAINFALL OCCURS ACROSS THIS REGION OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE DECLARED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THIS REGION.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, CROP AND SOIL MOISTURE INDICES ARE SHOWING SEVERELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOIL MOISTURE IS DEPLETING FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO BURN BANS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON COUNTY/PARISH WARNING AREA (CWA).

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KDBI) IS SHOWING VALUES FROM 601 TO 700 FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, EAST
CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL, AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE DROUGHT
AND INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE. SO FAR, THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRES. PEOPLE
LIVING ACROSS THIS REGION NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL WITH OPEN BURNING. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA HAS KDBI VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 501 TO 600. THIS IS ACTUALLY MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER AND EARLY FALL RATHER THAN EARLY TO MID SUMMER.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

POND LEVELS ARE DROPPING ACROSS THE MOST SEVERE AREAS OF DROUGHT. THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY`S (USGS) 7 DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW COMPARED TO THE HISTORICAL FOR THE DAY SHOWS VERY LOW
STREAMFLOWS IN THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BLACK RIVER. THESE VALUES ARE
INDICATIVE OF SEVERE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. THUS FAR, OTHER RIVER STREAMFLOWS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS. LAKE LEVELS IN ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR HAVE DROPPED FROM 297.55 FEET AT
THE END OF JUNE TO 297.25 FEET TODAY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER THE UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN.

GRENADA DAM IN GRENADA COUNTY HAS FALLEN FROM 215.80 FEET ON JUL 1ST TO AROUND 215.65 TODAY.
THE POOL HAS BEEN FAIRLY LEVEL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

                   RAINFALL        DEPARTURE        RAINFALL            DEPARTURE
              JAN 1ST TO DATE     FROM NORMAL    JUNE 1ST TO DATE       FROM NORMAL

JACKSON AP          35.51            +6.34            3.06                -2.00

HAWKINS AP          33.29            +3.83            2.57                -2.43
(JACKSON)

MERIDIAN AP         30.02            -0.80            5.03                -0.36

TALLULA-
VICKSBURG AP        40.36           +10.33            4.89                +0.16

CHAIN AIRPORT
(HATTIESBURG)       40.64            +7.46            9.48                +2.84

GREENWOOD/LEFLORE   29.84            +1.41            4.05                -1.05

GREENVILLE AP       31.46            +2.25            2.93                -2.02






PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT HAVE BEEN BYPASSING
THE REGION TO ONCE AGAIN HAVE A LITTLE INFLUENCE.  AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW CAN BE ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
PROVIDE HIGHLY LOCALIZED RELIEF TO THE AREA.

THE 3 MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE 3 MONTH RAINFALL OUTLOOKS SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NORMAL, OR ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO LAKE AND POND LEVELS AND RIVER LEVELS UNTIL SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS.


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE 21ST OF JULY.


&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS:  WEATHER.GOV/JAN
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:  WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER: WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
LA OFFICE OF STATE CLIMATOLOGY: WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
LSU AG CENTER: WWW.LSUAGCENTER.COM
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
LA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BURN BANS:
  WWW.LOUISIANA.MAPS.ARCGIS.COM/APPS/WEBAPPVIEWER/INDEX.HTML?ID=0E4DA4F5EA14443833340F6B7933815
ARKANSAS BURN BANS: WWW.ARKFIREINFO.ORG
MISSISSIPPI BURN BANS: WWW.MFC.MS.GOV/BURN-BANS
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:  GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATE-CLIMATOLOGIST/


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A FACILITATED COLLABORATION AMONG
VARIOUS AGENCIES WHICH INCLUDES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, STATE
CLIMATOLOGISTS, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, AND THE U.S.
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS/FAA OBSERVATION SITES, THE USDA, THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, USGS, FORESTRY INTERESTS IN MISSISSIPPI,
ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT INFORMATION ON THIS STATEMENT,
PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
234 WEATHER SERVICE DRIVE
JACKSON, MS 39232

PHONE: (601) 936-2189
EMAIL: MARTY.POPE@NOAA.GOV


$$
MVP



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