Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 102232
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ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY WILL KEEP THE
RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA...

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.

TONIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BETWEEN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
END FRIDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. GENERALLY WET SOILS WITH DORMANT VEGETATION MEANS A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL RESULT FROM PERSISTENT
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR.

EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN LESS THAN FORECAST OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN SOILS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAVE
MOISTENED UP SINCE YESTERDAY DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINALL. THERE IS
STILL A THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ACROSS RIVER BASINS IN
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER PEARL RIVER BASINS...BIG BLACK RIVER BASIN...AND
THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ACROSS AREA COULD PRODUCE SIGNFICANT FLASH
FLOODING AS WELL.

EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN DRIER THAN THE REMAINDER
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PASCAGOULA BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF RIVER... TALLAHALA
CREEK...CHUNKY RIVER...CHICKASAWHAY RIVER...AND BLACK CREEK COULD
PRODUCE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD CRESTS. THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN
INCLUDING THE YALOBUSHA AND BIG SUNFLOWER COULD SEE MINOR RIVER
FLOODING. RIVERS AND BAYOUS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA COULD EXPERIENCE
MINOR FLOODING AS WELL.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. A SHIFT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS BY 30 TO 50 MILES COULD IMPACT RIVER CRESTS SIGNIFICANTLY.

STAY ALERT AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING.

$$

MVP
















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