Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 272125
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ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
290000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
425 PM CDT THU APR 27 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY WITH FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE...

A deep mid-level trough will swing through the Central Plains with
an associated deepening surface low late this weekend into early
next week. This low will move slowly into the Midwest and drag a
cold front toward and through the Lower Mississippi Valley between
late Saturday and early Monday. The combination of an intense and
divergent upper level jet across the Lower Mississippi Valley and
strong influx of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico should
enhance torrential rain potential from thunderstorms anticipated
over the forecast area, mainly Sunday. Widespread 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals are expected but there is potential for a north to
south oriented axis in the forecast area to experience prolonged
training of storms and localized rain amounts in excess of 5 inches.
Some uncertainty remains on whether this axis will materialize and
especially on where this axis might set up. Of course associated
flooding potential will go up markedly in areas that would be
affected by this potential heaviest rain axis. As we move close to
Sunday the details of this event will come into better focus and our
confidence will increase.

As the system moves across the area from late Saturday night into
Sunday, rainfall rates will be very high producing high amounts and
flash flooding across the ARKLAMISS region. Many small streams and
rivers will be impacted with minor to moderate river flooding
possible. The rivers most vulnerable to flooding will be the Big
Black, Pearl, Chickasawhay, Leaf, and Tallahala Creek. Some river
flooding could be significant. Rivers and Bayous across Southeast
Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana will see very sharp rises with some
going into flood.

Those living along small streams and flood prone areas should take
preparations now to remove any debris from drainage systems due to
flooding that occurred in early April.

As stated, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the axis of
heaviest rainfall amounts. However, we do know that rain rates will
be intense and could lead to some localized flash flooding. Please
stay tuned to local media and your National Weather Service as we
approach this rainfall event.


$$

BB/MVP/GG



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