Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 281858
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
290000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2016  ..CORRECTION


...HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF NATCHEZ TRACE. FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE...


A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE PLUS A STRONG INFLUX
OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHER ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL RAINFALL
WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS MUCH HIGHER
LOCAL AMOUNTS. AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY, THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE BETTER DEFINED.

RECENT RAINFALL AND RAINFALL FROM TWO AND HALF WEEKS AGO HAS LEFT MANY
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WITH STANDING WATER. MANY OF THE
RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI YAZOO DELTA REGION ARE NEAR OR ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE SOILS ACROSS THE REGION ARE STILL VERY MOIST. EVEN THOUGH SPRING VEGETATION
GROWTH HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL, IT WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
INCREASED RIVER FLOODING FROM EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS. THE GREATEST
RIVER FLOOD THREATS ARE ALONG THE BIG SUNFLOWER BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI,
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA,
BAYOU MACON, BOEUF, AND TENSAS RIVERS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND
ALSO THE LOWER OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS IN NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA. MANY OF THESE RIVERS AND BAYOUS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A REAL ISSUE ALONG TRIBUTARIES
THAT FEED INTO THESE RIVERS AND BAYOUS. THE BIG BLACK RIVER HAS
RECEDED BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT COULD RISE UP VERY RAPIDLY WITH
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLY APPROACHING LEVELS REACHED IN THE
RECENT MARCH FLOODING.

RIVERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE INCLUDING THE PEARL, LEAF,
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AND TALLAHALA CREEK ARE NOT OUT OF THE THREAT AREA.
EVEN WITH MOST RIVERS WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. MOIST SOILS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES. IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT, THIS AREA COULD
SEE A GREATER THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA AND YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AS WE APPROACH LATE WEEK.

$$

MVP



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