Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 092156
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ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK...

A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN UNUSUALLY MOIST
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE COMMON...AND SOMEWHAT HEAVIER LOCALIZED TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE IN
NARROW STRIPES WHERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

THE FIRST SIGNFICANT RAINFALL EVENT WILL OCCUR FROM LATER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL END EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GENERALLY
WET GROUNDS WITH STILL DORMANT VEGETATION MEANS A SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL RESULT FROM PERSISTENT TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF MORE THAN
AN INCH PER HOUR.

SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH ACROSS ALL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA EXCEPT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
MOST VULNERABLE RIVER BASINS ARE FROM SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MODERATE FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PEARL RIVER BASINS...BIG
BLACK RIVER RIVER BASIN...AND THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER BASIN. LOCALLY
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAINFALL IN ACCESS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MOST
VULNERABLE RIVER BASINS COULD PRODUCE SIGNFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING.

EVEN THOUGH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN DRIER...3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE PASCAGOULA BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF RIVER...
TALLAHALA CREEK...CHUNKY RIVER...CHICKASAWHAY RIVER...AND BLACK
CREEK COULD PRODUCE MINOR AND EVEN MODERATE FLOOD CRESTS. THE YAZOO
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE YALOBUSHA AND BIG SUNFLOWER COULD SEE
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. RIVERS AND BAYOUS IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.

THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPECIFIC
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. A SHIFT OF
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS BY 30 TO 50 MILES COULD IMPACT RIVER CRESTS
SIGNIFICANTLY.

STAY ALERT AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING.

$$

MVP/AEG











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