Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 071415
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709PM CST THU MAR 06 2014


...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND
MUCH OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER...


SYNOPSIS...


ACROSS THE WFO JACKSON COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...TEMPERATURES FOR
THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY WERE BELOW
NORMAL. JANUARY WAS THE COLDEST MONTH WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
4 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS WINTER WILL GO DOWN AS THE 7TH
COLDEST ON RECORD FOR GREENWOOD...GREENVILLE...AND HATTIESBURG AND
THE 8TH COLDEST ON RECORD AT VICKSBURG/TALLULAH.

RAINFALL FOR THE WINTER MONTHS WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE ONLY AREA WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WAS FROM
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. AT
OUR OFFICIAL OBSERVING SITES...RAINFALL RANGED FROM 0.91 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL AT MERIDIAN TO 6.11 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AT
TALLULAH/VICKSBURG. THE DRIEST AREAS WERE NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY.

THE DRY WINTER HAS LEFT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME
WEST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE YAZOO DELTA REGION. ELSEWHERE...SOIL
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL.


LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY AR TO NATCHEZ MS...

SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEPTH CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH 6 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, NORTHEAST
IOWA, AND NORTH ILLINOIS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

RECENT STORMS HAVE GENERATED SNOW DEPTH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE
JUNCTION OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES. SNOW DEPTHS WERE LIGHTER OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OHIO, MISSISSIPPI, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WITH
AMOUNTS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES. THIS SNOW SHOULD MELT OVER THE
COMING DAYS AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH POCKETS OF ABOVE NORMAL
OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER MISSOURI AND RED
RIVER VALLEY HAVE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

DURING THE WINTER, SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ON
THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS THIS SEASON. WARMER
TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOW IN THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND WELL-BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE CRESTS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOWMELT AND RAIN ARE APPROACHING ARKANSAS CITY ARKANSAS.

SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:

                                             3/5
MISSISSIPPI RIVER              THEBES IL     71%
OHIO RIVER                      CAIRO IL    114%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             MEMPHIS TN    105%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER       ARKANSAS CITY AR    107%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER           VICKSBURG MS    115%
MISSISSIPPI RIVER             NATCHEZ MS    118%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT
OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT;
COUPLED WITH THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.


OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...

STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN ARKANSAS AND NEAR NORMAL IN
LOUISIANA. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THATCHER LOCK & DAM ON THE
MIDDLE OUACHITA RIVER. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUACHITA AND BLACK RIVER BASINS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/5
OUACHITA RIVER                 MONROE LA     72%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW            PORTLAND AR     93%
BAYOU BARTHOLOMEW               JONES LA     80%
TENSAS                         TENDAL LA     14%

PERCENT OF AVAILABLE RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IN THE UPPER
OUACHITA IS GIVEN BELOW:

                                            3/5
                        LAKE OUACHITA AR    100%
                          DEGRAY RES. AR    100%
                         LAKE GRESSON AR    100%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED OVER THE OUACHITA AND BLACK
RIVER BASINS WHICH INCLUDES THE TENSAS RIVER...BAYOU MACON...BAYOU
BARTHOLOMEW...AND THE BOEUF RIVER.


BIG BLACK RIVER AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS...

MINOR RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE WINTER HAS CAUSED SEASONAL FLOODING
ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER BUT DRY WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS HAS ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. THE HOMOCHITTO HAS HAD ABUNDANT RAINFALL
WITH SIGNIFICANT BELOW-FLOOD-STAGE RISES. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME ALONG EITHER
RIVER SYSTEM AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/5
BIG BLACK RIVER                  WEST MS     64%
BIG BLACK RIVER                BOVINA MS     43%
HOMOCHITTO RIVER               ROSETTA MS    94%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE BIG BLACK AND
HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS.


YAZOO RIVER BASIN...

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE YAZOO
RIVER BASIN. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NO
FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.

OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/5
BIG SUNFLOWER                                55%


PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS GIVEN BELOW:

                                             3/5
                       ARKABUTLA RES. MS     91%
                          SARDIS RES. MS     88%
                            ENID RES. MS     88%
                         GRENADA RES. MS     92%


BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THE YAZOO RIVER BASIN.


PEARL RIVER BASIN...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED SEVERAL FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS THE
PEARL RIVER BASIN. ELEVATED LEVELS HAVE RECEDED OVER THE PEARL RIVER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. OVERALL SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL AND NEW FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/5
PEARL RIVER                  CARTHAGE MS      63%
PEARL RIVER                   JACKSON MS      32%
PEARL RIVER                MONTICELLO MS      46%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER BASIN.


PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE
LEAF...CHUNKY...AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS...

HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS CAUSED PERIODS OF
MINOR FLOODING OVER THE PASCAGOULA BASIN. STREAMFLOWS HAVE RECEDED
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AND OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR
NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY RIVERS. NO FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/5
LEAF RIVER                HATTIESBURG MS      71%
TALLAHALA CREEK                LAUREL MS      88%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER         ENTERPRISE MS      73%

BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...

AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER PASCAGOULA
BASIN WHICH INCLUDES THE LEAF...CHICKASAWHAY...CHUNKY RIVER AND
TALLAHALA CREEK.


TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI WHICH INCLUDES THE NOXUBEE RIVER AND
THE TIBBEE AND LUXAPALLILA CREEKS...

RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN.
ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE RISES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH NO FLOODING
ALONG STREAMS OR CREEKS IN THE WFO JACKSON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
SOIL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                              3/5
TOMBIGBEE RIVER                  BIGBEE MS    49%
LUXAPALLILA CREEK              COLUMBUS MS    72%
NOXUBEE RIVER                     MACON MS    84%


BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING
RAINFALL PATTERNS...


AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE AND
TRIBUTARIES IN MISSISSIPPI.


EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR ARKLAMISS REGION.

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL...OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ARKLAMISS REGION.

THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION WHILE THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARKLAMISS REGION.


THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.


NOTE: STREAMFLOW DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS AND U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

$$

MVP







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