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000
FXUS64 KLIX 170502
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1202 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper level ridging has moved to our east, leaving influence from
an upper low moving into the upper midwest. An frontal system
attendant with the low is approaching the lower Mississippi
Valley, but will lift north of us due to a Gulf high at the
surface (connected to the Bermuda high) that extends upward to H5.
This interaction will give us zonal flow through the end of the
period.

As we move into the end of the period upper level moisture brings
cirrus cloud cover, but mid and lower levels remain fairly dry.
Rain is not an issue, although a sprinkle here and there can`t be
ruled out. Temperatures will be above normal, lows significantly
higher generally by 10 degrees and highs by at least a few
degrees. With the pressure gradients between the high in the gulf
and lower to the north we see southeasterly to southerly winds up
to 10kt.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally, into the weekend, we see drying in the upper levels,
but moistening in the lower. So, we`ll still have clouds, but more
in the lower levels. In the long term, we continue with the zonal
flow but have several short waves moving through the area pulling
varying amounts of moisture into the area. The most significant
is roughly Sunday. After this system passes, we move into dryer
and cooler conditions

Until the front arrives the weather will be unseasonably warm
across the local area, with highs for at least Thursday and Friday
well into the 80s across most of the area. On Friday, if we were
to get full sunshine, soundings are supportive of highs around 90
away from marine influences. That would be right around record
territory at our main climate sites. Highs greater than 90 degrees
are a rare event in April, even in southeast Louisiana. As noted
yesterday, Baton Rouge has only exceeded 90 degrees in April 3
times in the last 25 years. However, can`t ignore that NBM
probabilities of the high being at or above 90 degrees on Friday
exceed 40 percent for a good chunk of the area near and north of a
Bogalusa-Hammond-Bayou Sorrel line. Saturday will likely be the
transition day, with highs Sunday and Monday mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Boundary layer winds of 20 knots will combine with raditional
cooling to support the development of an elevated inversion layer.
Beneath this inversion layer, a broad area of low stratus ranging
from 800 to 1500 feet will develop between 06z and 08z and then
linger through 14 to 15z at all of the terminals. The inversion is
still expected to strongest at MCB, and this area will have the
longest duration of IFR ceilings. After 15z, ceilings will
gradually lift into MVFR and then VFR range. Winds will remain out
of the south at between 5 and 10 knots through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Another inversion will develop tonight, and this will once again
allow for the development of low stratus at all of the terminals
between 08z and 14z. The inversion will be strongest at MCB, and
prevailing IFR ceilings of 500 to 800 feet can be expected. There
may also be some reduced visibilities of 3 to 5 miles associated
with the low stratus. The remainder of the terminals will see a
mix of IFR and MVFR conditions between 08z and 14z with ceilings
ranging from as low as 800 to as high as 1500 feet over this
period. Before the inversion forms and after the inversion lifts,
VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

With the zonal flow, gradient induced flow with a strong southerly
component is on tap. Wind speeds will remain on the low end of the
scale, likely not in excess of 10kt. With the frontal system
coming over the weekend, we could see some headline level winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  70  86  70  87 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  68  82  67  84 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  70  82  70  84 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  78  67  80 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  64  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...DS