000
FXUS64 KLIX 170452
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013


.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE AREA AS CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT SOME TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE BUT THAT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION
OF IT BUT EXPECT TO SEE IT ADDED IN THE 12Z ISSUANCE THIS MORNING. 13/MH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM CAROLINAS
TO NORTHEAST GULF TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 INCHES VALUES FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO THE ARKLATEX REGION..DRY AIR NEAR 1.5 INCHES JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THETA E VALUES ON PLANER VIEW
SHOWED AN AXIS OF DESCENDING VALUES IN THE SAME PLACE AS THE MOISTURE
AXIS. UPPER AIR CHARTS AND ANALYSIS SHOWED PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM
WEST TO EAST NORTH 35N AND ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OVER WEST TEXAS
AND OVER NORTHEAST GULF AND EAST FLOW OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF 24N.
A WEAKNESS WAS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WERE AHEAD...ALONG AND BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE. IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MASS OF CLOUDS AND COOLER CLOUD TOPS
FROM CONVECTION BETWEEN JAMAICA AND YUCATAN. NHC HAS UPGRADED TO
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS WITH
THIS MASS.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LEAVING A MORE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS WARMING ALOFT WILL
SHIFT WEST LEAVING THE EAST AND MISSISSIPPI COAST WITH SLIGHTLY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES FOR MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF KEEPING TROPICS SOUTH OF 20N THROUGH MONDAY
AND BEYOND. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WEST AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST SEABOARD...OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REST OF THE NORTH HALF FORECAST
AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD BACK TO EAST
BY THURSDAY SHIFTING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE EAST HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO GREAT
LAKES...LEAVING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AND MOISTURE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT INTO HAZY CONDITIONS AND LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  91  72  89 /  10  20  10  40
BTR  74  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  30
ASD  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  10  30
MSY  76  90  76  90 /  10  20  10  30
GPT  75  89  76  88 /  20  30  10  30
PQL  74  90  75  88 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$