000
FXUS64 KLIX 142038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
LOWER HALF OF THE CWA...JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. WHILE RADAR
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY QUIET...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE MAIN
AREA OF FOCUS. LOCAL AND NCEP WRF MODELS DO SUPPORT THIS BY
INDICATING A FEW BREAKING OUT SHORTLY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE UPDATED THE TODAY PERIOD TO ACCOMMODATE FOR
THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. OF OTHER CONCERN IS HEAT.
COMBINATION OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM COLD FRONT BEING ON TOP OF
THE AREA AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT IT DID NOT MAKE IT TO THE COAST
HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTURE LEVELS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND TEMPS TO RISE
QUITE A BIT. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR HEAT INDICIES AROUND 105.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TOMORROW SO NOT EXPECTED HEAT
INDICIES TO BE AS CLOSE TO HEAT INDEX CRITERIA LIKE THEY ARE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION QUITE SUPPRESSED THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BREAK THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTER HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL SHIFT CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST...PUTTING THE
CWA NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THUS BEGIN ALLOWING FOR A
FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEAR MS/LA
BORDER. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

A FEW MODELS SHOW A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO BE NO THREAT TO
THE GULF COAST.

MEFFER

&&
.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS CU FIELD TO BE WELL DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEY SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY MINIMAL AND UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS. SO WILL NOT CARRY
ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

MEFFER/18
&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND NOT
LIKELY TO MOVE MUCH MORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. IN THE MEANTIME...
EXPECTING ENHANCED OFFSHORE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH
INCLUDES THE MS AND CHANDELEUR SOUNDS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ELEVATED
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE WASHED
OUT AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING
IN FROM THE EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             SUPPORTING GEISMER CHEMICAL PLANT EXPLOSION SITE.
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  93  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  95  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  71  92  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  93  75  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  73  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  70  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$