000
FXUS64 KLIX 181758
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
LARGER CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM
THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP NORTH OF A BTR TO ASD LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH CLOSES IN ON THE
AREA.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE P/CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND SETTLES TOWARD GULF COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE
CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING IN THE 1.75 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2
INCH RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE MID AND THEN EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
BY THE DEPARTED EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. 11

AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A MORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS
WILL RANGE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK...INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AM

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
TAFS REFLECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PERSISTENT RAIN. RAIN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER 00Z. AM

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  69  92 /  30  40  20  20
BTR  73  90  71  92 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  73  90  71  91 /  30  50  30  20
MSY  75  90  74  91 /  30  50  30  20
GPT  75  89  72  89 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  73  90  70  91 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$