Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 291738 AAB
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Warming temperatures and dry weather are expected through the
period across the state. Broad H500 ridging will build over the
region through Saturday which will aid in warmer temperatures and
occasional cloud cover streaming overhead.
Sfc pressure gradient will intensify today and tomorrow as sfc
ridging to the SE interacts with a developing low to the NW. This
will provide increased S-SW winds across the state, especially
across western/northern Arkansas. Temperatures today and tomorrow
will top out about 10-15 F above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
The long term will start off under the influence of an upper ridge
here locally with an upper trough positioned invof CA/UT. The upper
trough is progged to sweep across the Four Corners region early on
Monday before ejecting into the Plains/Mid MS Valley on Tuesday as a
positively tiled trough. Wednesday into Thursday, the aforementioned
trough will move into the OH Valley meanwhile an amplifying ridge is
anticipated to develop and pivot over the Rockies in the wake of the
departing upper trough.
Quiet weather conditions are expected locally on Sunday through
early Monday afternoon. Sustained S/SWrly flow will bring above
average temperatures to AR, including increased low-level moisture
to much of the region.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into
portions of AR as early as Monday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday along and ahead of an approaching cold front. At this point
in time, there does appear to be a decent amount of wind shear with
this system, both in regards to speed magnitudes and clockwise
turning of winds with height. The most favorable turning of winds
with height should be Monday afternoon before winds become more
aligned and become unidirectional. Given Srly flow across the
region, temperatures will be mild with highs in the 70s to lower 80s
across the open warm sector. Dew point temperatures appear to be the
limiting factor with values ranging from 55 to 65 degrees. The
surface low and associated warm front should stay well N of AR,
therefore the greatest potential for severe weather will lie near
these features. Across AR, the greatest severe weather threat attm
is for the potential of large hail.
Surface high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday and
Thursday, promoting below average temperatures across the state. Dry
weather will return and persist through the end of the long term.
Scattered and or patchy frost will be possible Wednesday and
Thursday mornings over portions of Nrn and Wrn AR. Through Monday,
high temperatures should top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Beyond
Tuesday, highs should cool off, reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Thru tonight, an area of BKN/OVC high clouds will move across all
terminals with a temporary decrease in cloud cover before
additional mid/low clouds move in from the W after daybreak Sat.
Some MVFR cigs will be possible across Wrn/Nrn terminals, although
confidence is low attm. Otherwise, SWrly winds will persist with
at least occasional gusts for much of the period. Some LLWS can be
expected at HRO/BPK as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 55 76 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
Camden AR 53 78 59 79 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison AR 54 74 59 76 / 0 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 54 76 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
Little Rock AR 56 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello AR 54 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 54 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
Mountain Home AR 53 76 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
Newport AR 54 76 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 53 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville AR 53 77 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
Searcy AR 51 76 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 54 76 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...69