Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291738 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Warming temperatures and dry weather are expected through the
period across the state. Broad H500 ridging will build over the
region through Saturday which will aid in warmer temperatures and
occasional cloud cover streaming overhead.

Sfc pressure gradient will intensify today and tomorrow as sfc
ridging to the SE interacts with a developing low to the NW. This
will provide increased S-SW winds across the state, especially
across western/northern Arkansas. Temperatures today and tomorrow
will top out about 10-15 F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The long term will start off under the influence of an upper ridge
here locally with an upper trough positioned invof CA/UT. The upper
trough is progged to sweep across the Four Corners region early on
Monday before ejecting into the Plains/Mid MS Valley on Tuesday as a
positively tiled trough. Wednesday into Thursday, the aforementioned
trough will move into the OH Valley meanwhile an amplifying ridge is
anticipated to develop and pivot over the Rockies in the wake of the
departing upper trough.

Quiet weather conditions are expected locally on Sunday through
early Monday afternoon. Sustained S/SWrly flow will bring above
average temperatures to AR, including increased low-level moisture
to much of the region.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move into
portions of AR as early as Monday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday along and ahead of an approaching cold front. At this point
in time, there does appear to be a decent amount of wind shear with
this system, both in regards to speed magnitudes and clockwise
turning of winds with height. The most favorable turning of winds
with height should be Monday afternoon before winds become more
aligned and become unidirectional. Given Srly flow across the
region, temperatures will be mild with highs in the 70s to lower 80s
across the open warm sector. Dew point temperatures appear to be the
limiting factor with values ranging from 55 to 65 degrees. The
surface low and associated warm front should stay well N of AR,
therefore the greatest potential for severe weather will lie near
these features. Across AR, the greatest severe weather threat attm
is for the potential of large hail.

Surface high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday and
Thursday, promoting below average temperatures across the state. Dry
weather will return and persist through the end of the long term.
Scattered and or patchy frost will be possible Wednesday and
Thursday mornings over portions of Nrn and Wrn AR. Through Monday,
high temperatures should top out in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Beyond
Tuesday, highs should cool off, reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Thru tonight, an area of BKN/OVC high clouds will move across all
terminals with a temporary decrease in cloud cover before
additional mid/low clouds move in from the W after daybreak Sat.
Some MVFR cigs will be possible across Wrn/Nrn terminals, although
confidence is low attm. Otherwise, SWrly winds will persist with
at least occasional gusts for much of the period. Some LLWS can be
expected at HRO/BPK as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     55  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         53  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       54  74  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  56  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     54  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      54  76  59  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  53  76  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        54  76  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  78  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   53  77  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         51  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      54  76  61  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...69


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