National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KLZK 161456 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

DID AN EARLIER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE AM POPS ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER
EASTERN OK AT THIS TIME. MODELS GRADUALLY MOVE THIS LOW THROUGH AR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT SPOKE OVER CENTRAL AR AND LIFTING
NNE...WHILE NEXT ONE OVER SE OK TO NE TX...AND MOVING EAST. MAINLY
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THE CURRENT AREA OVER AR...WHILE MORE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE AREA OVER SE OK AND NE
TX. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND AFFECT SOUTHERN
AR...BEFORE LIFTING NE LATER TODAY. SPC HAS PUT SOUTHERN AR IN
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND WE
DID SEE SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WITH ON GOING
CONVECTION OVER AR. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL WITH LI
OF ONLY 0...WHILE CAPE OF 179 J/KG. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MUCH OF
ANY HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO TRIM
TEMPS BACK DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS...WHILE FINE TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.  (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

.AVIATION...

SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS. HOWEVER...TSRA/VCTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

UPR LVL LOW WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR. WL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON POPS EARLY IN THE PD
THIS MRNG.

THE UPR SYS IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACRS AR TNGT AND FRI...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WX CONDS. THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS WL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ROTATING ARND THE MAIN
UPR LOW/RESULTING POPS AND TEMPS THRU FRI. INDCD HIGHEST POPS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DCRS FM THE W FRI AND FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OF AR. UPR LVL RDG IS FCST TO BLDS INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT AND SUN...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM. THE NEXT UPR LVL TROF WL
APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHC POPS
MENTIONED ACRS NWRN AR LATER SUN NGT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NORTHWEST MONDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...THERE IS
STILL INDICATIONS OF STRONG STORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58