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000
FXUS64 KLZK 111735
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.AVIATION...
NEXT COLD FRONT STILL OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT
THIS TIME BUT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF COAST...WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW FRONT MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...BUT
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE.

ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE NEW FRONT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH...CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS
WILL BRING A WARMUP MONDAY/TUESDAY. WHILE THE MERCURY WILL BE ON
THE WAY UP...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO THE PREVALENCE OF
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS
SHIFTS BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE LEVELS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING PRECIP ON WED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

FOR THURSDAY ONWARD HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
AS HIGH. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
ARKANSAS. THIS KEEPS SHOWERS GOING MUCH OF THE TIME THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE EURO DOES NOT HAVE THE STALLED BOUNDARY...THOUGH THE QPF
SIGNAL DOES SHOW A TREND TOWARDS DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS SUCH I DID
GO AHEAD AND LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THURSDAY AND AGAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  43  68  50 /  20  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         77  52  75  45 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  41  66  44 /  30  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  49  73  46 /  10  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  49  71  49 /  10  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  52  73  46 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      76  46  71  44 /  10  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  42  67  46 /  30  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  45  68  47 /  20  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  51  70  48 /  10  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  44  72  45 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         75  46  69  44 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  50  69  48 /  10  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56