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000
FXUS64 KMEG 172044
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE OLD MCV THAT KICKED OFF CONVECTION OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING HAS MOVED EAST TO THE TN RIVER WITH THE
ASSOCD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN
AL. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO THE MEMPHIS METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES AOA 2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO UNSTABLE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG IN SOME
AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
ALSO WEAK SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. AS A RESULT
OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
THOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE
BIGGER THREAT. HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH CHANCES
TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION AND THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOST
OF THE PRECIP TO BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT A
SMALL POP IN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY NIGHT OTRW EXPECT
RAIN FREE CONDS AND CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO HAVE ONE
TO TWO INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A NICE DAY TO THE MIDSOUTH
WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COULD BE A FEW AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND NOT WORTH
MENTIONING ATTM.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.  THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME IS AT JBR.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE QUICK DOWNPOURS WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 3 MILES WITH RAPID CHANGES IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY IN THE CONVECTION.

THE OPPORTUNITY FOR VCSH EXTENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 02Z FOR
ALL TAF SITES BEFORE ENDING AT 07Z IN JBR AND 15Z AT TUP.

 BELLES


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  87  71  90 /  80  50  10  10
MKL  69  85  66  88 /  80  50  10  10
JBR  69  87  67  90 /  70  30  10  10
TUP  72  85  70  90 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$