National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMEG 190010
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE RISK
REMAINS RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SHRAS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. OTRW EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE AS
MOIST TONIGHT SO PULLED THE LOWER CIGS FROM KMEM AND WENT WITH A
BRIEF TEMPO OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP FROM
19/10Z-19/14Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. ANY LOWER CONDS WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE OVERNIGHT INCREASING
AND BECOMING GUSTY LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
MKL  68  88  69  88 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  69  88  70  86 /  10  10  20  30
TUP  69  89  68  89 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office