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000
FXUS64 KMEG 130521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF WEAK
AND SUBTLE MID MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PRODUCING A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 PM
CDT ARE IN THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF FROST OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT
TERM TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF THE FROST ADVISORY IN
THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT TO
HEADLINES. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS IN EXCELLENT
SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. AREAS OF FROST
WILL DEVELOP AND AS A RESULT A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE LAKE AND DYER COUNTY.
MEANWHILE...THE REST OF THE CWA MAY SEE SOME MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE LINE. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S INTO THE UPPER 40S.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AFTER A COOL
START. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT UP INTO THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

NEXT WEEKEND...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

KRM

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 13TH...

MEMPHIS TN...   45 SET IN 1997
JACKSON TN...   43 SET IN 1960
JONESBORO AR... 40 SET IN 1910
TUPELO MS...    43 SET IN 1997

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...GENERALLY
5-10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  48  76  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  36  71  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  44  75  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  39  73  51  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-GIBSON-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$