000
FXUS64 KMEG 140437
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORNING LOWS AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S. ONE OF THE FEW ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WE
HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. ENJOY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LIGHT SW WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DELTA AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE TN RIVER. TEMPS ARE STARTING TO WARM AS
THE COOL AIRMASS HEADS EAST. AT 19Z TEMPS RANGED FROM 66F AT
PARIS TO 74F AT MEMPHIS. A FEW MID CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THOUGH MOST PLACES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH BREEZY CONDS EACH AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE TOLERABLE SINCE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF IS KEEPING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG RAIN
PRODUCER THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK SURFACE
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF WILL START TO WEAKEN SO
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY WORK NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH A LITTLE LOWER THAN TUE/WED DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD BACK IN AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH HEADS EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMBINED WITH HEATING
MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS DEWPOINTS RISE
ABOVE 60F. AFTER A SLIGHT BREAK ON THURSDAY TEMPS WILL START TO
CLIMB AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE MORE LIKE SUMMER
IS AROUND THE CORNER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CAPPED. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TN
RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OTRW MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY.

MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEST
WEEK. THE GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH MON WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE LIKE
TUE. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS FOR
MON FOR NOW.

SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AT MEM AND INCREASE AREAWIDE TO 10-14 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 18-23 KTS AFTER 14/14Z. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-7 KTS AFTER 15/01Z.

CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 59 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 10
MKL 52 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10
JBR 56 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 52 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$