000
FXUS64 KMEG 121134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS RECORD SETTING COLD FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST MS AND WILL SOON BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. MUCH DRIER AND COOL AIR WAS SPREADING INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE NORTH WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO PUSH MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ONLY INTO MOSTLY THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE MIDSOUTH
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...VERY GOOD RADIATION COOLING
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST TENNESSEE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM AROUND UNION CITY TO JACKSON TO AROUND SELMER. AREAS
OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH LOWS BETWEEN 34 AND 36
DEGREES. JUST OUTSIDE THIS AREA AND INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST MS...PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
MAY 13TH ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN AT JACKSON TN AND TUPELO MS. IN
ADDITION...JACKSON TN MAY OBSERVE THE COLDEST READING FOR SO LATE IN
THE SPRING SEASON.

RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE GULF
COAST MONDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THUS
AFTER A CHILLY START...A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE MIDSOUTH
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAKING IT FEEL WE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO IN MAY.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE WEST FRIDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST HELPING TO SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MORE HUMID.

JCL

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR MAY 13TH...

MEMPHIS TN...   45 SET IN 1997
JACKSON TN...   43 SET IN 1960
JONESBORO AR... 40 SET IN 1910
TUPELO MS...    43 SET IN 1997

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH...GENERALLY 8-12 KTS DURING THE DAY BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  46  74  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  65  36  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  67  42  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  68  40  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDIN-HENDERSON-
     HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$