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000
FXUS64 KMOB 162046
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT MEANWHILE
PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THIS
FEATURE. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM 70 TO 75 HAVE RESULTED IN HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

WITH MLCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE AFTERNOON WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY UNDERNEATH CONTINUED ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN
LOOKS TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE
SEABREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY LEND TO BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWFA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WE WILL CARRY
SCATTERED /30-50 PERCENT/ COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. LITTLE VARIATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS IS EXPECTED...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S INLAND. /21




[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE AREA EMBEDDED IN A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE 50S DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDWEEK INTO THE 40S. HEAT INDICES
REMAINING OUTSIDE CRITERIA JUST BELOW 100. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BECOMING AN ELONGATED WEST TO
EAST RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL RE-ALIGN ITSELF SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT
SWINGS SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEAK
SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS
AND BRING SCATTERED MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS. /77

&&

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SECONDARY LARGER HIGH
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL RE-ALIGN ITSELF NORTHEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING A RETURN OF LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. AN OMEGA BLOCK IS INDICATED IN THE WAVENUMBER 5
OUTPUT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH SEEMS TO INPUT INTO A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND LOCALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. /77


&&

.AVIATION [18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE
NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH TSRA. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY MVFR CIGS OR BR
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF/S. SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST UNDER THIS PATTERN. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. /21

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE
AREA. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINING OUTSIDE CRITERIA. DISPERSION MONDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE NORTHEAST DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH STABILITY TO 700 MB BRINGING LOW
MIXING HEIGHTS. DISPERSION MID 30S ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY...DISPERSION
WILL BE GENERALLY DOUBLE THAT WITH A SIMILAR ORIENTATION.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG NOT EXPECTED GENERALLY BUT MAY
BE PATCHY IN AREAS HAVING RAIN SUNDAY. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  91  73  89  73 /  20  40  20  30  30
PENSACOLA   76  89  75  89  75 /  20  30  10  20  20
DESTIN      76  89  76  86  77 /  20  30  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   72  91  70  90  71 /  20  40  30  40  30
WAYNESBORO  71  92  70  90  68 /  20  40  20  40  30
CAMDEN      72  91  71  90  70 /  20  50  30  50  30
CRESTVIEW   72  91  71  91  71 /  20  40  20  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$