Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 161944
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A stalled surface boundary remains situated well offshore the coast
of AL/FL this afternoon. Low level cloud cover made for a tricky
temperature forecast today, but has finally for the most part eroded
outside of the far interior counties. Afternoon highs have varied
from staying in the lower to middle 60`s where cloud cover hung on
the longest to middle to upper 70`s over the far southeastern MS
into far southwestern AL where cloud cover eroded the earliest. For
interior areas, don`t expect much of a drop in temperatures tonight
with lows across the entire area falling into the upper 50`s to
lower 60`s. Highs Sunday will be moderated by extensive convection
and cloud cover, only rising into the middle to upper 60`s for most
spots. The FL panhandle stands the best chance to make it into the
lower 70`s.

The aforementioned boundary may lift northward somewhat as we head
through tonight and this feature will serve as the main focus for an
eventual MCS to track along. Given the current location of the
boundary and limited window for appreciable warm advection with a
quick transiting upper level shortwave I would expect the warm
sector to remain offshore and not allow for any appreciable severe
threat on the coast. There`s always the outside possibility for the
warm sector to sneak up to the coast allowing for surface based
storms. If this can happen a low end threat for damaging winds and a
brief tornado are possible. Heavy rainfall will be the main show,
particularly along the coast where moderate to heavy rain associated
with the northern part of the complex will transit. Over the
interior, rain will be lighter with generally a half inch to an inch
of rain expected. Nearer the coast, one to three inches of rain can
be expected. Overall expect rain chances to rapidly increase through
the morning from isolated coverage to widespread by early afternoon
for much of the area. A moderate risk of rip currents will be
present through Sunday. MM/25

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A large positively tilted upper trof over the northern/central
Plains and interior eastern states takes on a meridional orientation
while progressing into the far western Atlantic through Monday
night. A cold front will be located just east of the forecast area
at the beginning of the period and continues well off to the east
through Monday night as a dome of dry and cool high pressure builds
into the region. May see some mostly isolated to scattered
convection Sunday evening generally east of I-65, but after that dry
conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Lows Sunday night
range from the lower 40s well inland to the lower/mid 50s at the
immediate coast. Highs on Monday range from around 60 well inland to
the mid 60s closer to the coast. The coldest night will be Monday
night when lows range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s at
the coast, and it`s possible that a Freeze Watch may become
necessary well inland. An open radiative channel and light/calm
winds will favor frost development late Monday night over interior
areas which will need to be monitored. Highs on Tuesday will be
around 60 into the lower 60s. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid
to upper 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast. A moderate risk of
rip currents Sunday night will be followed by a low risk for Monday
through Tuesday night. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

An upper low over the extreme southwest states will have meanwhile
broken down to a shortwave trof during the SHORT TERM period which
then progresses across the south central states Wednesday night into
Thursday night. A frontal boundary will be located Wednesday morning
from Oklahoma to across Tennessee (and into the northeast states).
The frontal boundary weakens while advancing into central Alabama
where it stalls Wednesday evening, then lifts northward away from
the area Thursday morning as a surface low develops over the south
central states. As the shortwave trof continues across the south
central states and into the interior eastern states during the end
of the work week, the surface low is anticipated to track from the
south central states into the north central Gulf by Thursday night
then exit to the east on Friday. Dry conditions continue over the
forecast area through Wednesday night while deep layer moisture
improves over the forecast area. As the surface low approaches and
passes south of the area, will have slight chance to chance pops
return to much of the forecast on Thursday with chance pops for
Thursday night. Have gone with mostly chance pops for Friday
morning, then pops taper off to dry conditions for Friday night and
Saturday as the surface low continues away from the area. Some
embedded thunderstorms are expected Thursday night into Friday
mainly over the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi,
but the potential for severe storms looks low considering the
trajectory of the surface low along with limited instability. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Winds remain light and variable as a surface boundary remains
situated offshore through Sunday. A stronger cold front sweeps
across the marine zones Sunday night into Monday, bringing a
strong offshore flow to area waters for the beginning of the week.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Sunday night through
Monday night for strong offshore winds. Winds become light and
variable and seas relax from mid to late week. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      63  70  49  65  35  61  41  70 /  40  90  30   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   62  70  54  65  39  60  45  68 /  30  90  40   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  70  56  67  41  60  47  68 /  20  80  60   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   60  68  47  62  32  62  37  72 /  40 100  40   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  63  44  61  31  61  37  71 /  70 100  10   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      57  63  43  59  30  60  37  70 /  50 100  20   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   61  74  51  65  33  62  37  71 /  20  90  50   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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