Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 151137
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
637 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail this morning in low clouds and
patchy fog. Ceilings lower and rain chances increase through the
afternoon as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves south
toward the coast. Another round of patchy dense fog is expected
late tonight into Saturday morning. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A moist southerly flow has created conditions favorable for dense
fog development and a dense fog advisory remains in effect for
southern portions of the area through 10 am this morning.
Meanwhile, a line of showers and storms has developed ahead of a
cold front across the TN valley this morning. This line is
expected to continue moving south through day and across our area
during the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances will increase
from north to south across our area from late this morning into
this afternoon. The environment ahead of the approaching line of
storms will be characterized by CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG
with sufficient deep layer shear for continued
organization/propagation of the line as it moves through our CWA.
Main concerns with the line will be strong wind gusts, perhaps
with a localized damaging gust threat and possibly a few cells
embedded within the line capable of producing large hail. This
threat is highest across out extreme northwest zones. Locally
heavy rain could quickly drop 1-2" of rain with locally higher
amounts which could lead to localized flooding. Storms may push
offshore along with an associated outflow boundary this evening,
though there could be some lingering showers or a few storms into
the mid to late evening hours. Another round of dense fog
development is possible again tonight into Saturday morning.

The front is expected to remain near the coast during the day on
Saturday with most of the area remaining dry. Isolated showers and
storms will remain possible near the coast in the vicinity of the
front. A more potent upper shortwave is expected to approach the
area Sat night into Sun morning bringing another round of showers
and storms. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Passing shortwave energy will move through zonal upper flow over
the Southeast the end of the weekend. A stronger upper level
shortwave trough moves south over the eastern Conus at the same
time, shifting a cooler airmass north of a surface boundary
over/near the northern Gulf coast(guidance varies on location)
southward late Sunday into Sunday night. Increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms in a moist airmass (precipitable h20
values around 1.5") will cross the forecast area Sunday before the
southward movement of the airmass and now cold front shifts the
rain south of the forecast area by Monday. Fog is a possibility
Sunday night, mainly south of the Gulf coast.

Looking at the possiblity of strong to severe storms, the advancing
cold airmass will bring a small increase in height falls over the
forecast area Sunday, enough for guidance to advertise MLCapes
rising into the 1000-1500J/kg range along and south of the surface
boundary. Add in Bulk Wind Shear values of 45-55kts, a few strong to
marginally severe storms are possible. Wind damage and marginally
large hail the main threats. The big question is where the best
chance is, with location of the surface boundary the biggest
delineator, along with a possible modification of the boundary layer
due to the cooler waters along our portion of the Gulf coast. At
this point, SPC has placed our southern tier of counties in a
marginal risk for Sunday. Am not expecting water issues, with the
progressive nation of the passing shortwave energy.

Temperatures above seasonal norms Saturday night, with low
temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60, fall into the mid 40 to
mid 50s Sunday night as a cooler airmass moves south over the
Southeast. High temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s are
expected Sunday
/16

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The upper trough diving south over the eastern Conus moves
through Monday into Tuesday, with a weak upper ridge building over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Southeast mid week. A
drier and cooler airmass moves over the region early in the coming
week, dropping temperatures below seasonal norms. Near-freezing
temperatures and frost are possible over the northern half of the
forecast area Monday night. Temperatures rise to around to a bit
above seasonal norms mid week. Passing shortwave energy along with
an uptick in moisture levels late Wednesday into the end of the
week will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms back to
the forecast area for the end of the week.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Light to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds will persist
through today. Winds become more variable as a frontal boundary
drifts into the region and meanders over area waters this weekend.
A stronger cold front sweeps across the marine zones Sunday night
into Monday, bringing a moderate to occasionally strong offshore
flow to area waters for the beginning of the week. Dense sea fog
development is likely tonight across local area bays and sounds,
as well as adjacent Gulf waters out to 20 NM. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  63  80  61  73  51  68  38 /  50  40  20  30  80  30   0   0
Pensacola   77  65  79  63  74  54  68  41 /  20  30  10  10  80  40   0   0
Destin      75  65  77  63  74  56  69  43 /  10  20  10  10  70  40   0   0
Evergreen   82  60  79  56  72  47  65  33 /  60  60  20  30  80  30   0   0
Waynesboro  79  59  77  56  68  46  63  33 /  90  50  20  40  80  10   0   0
Camden      79  59  75  56  68  44  62  33 /  80  70  20  30  70  20   0   0
Crestview   82  63  82  59  75  51  68  35 /  20  40  20  20  80  50   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Monday
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Monday
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636-
     650-655.

&&

$$

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