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000
FXUS64 KMOB 140448 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...[06Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
NORTHERLY FLOW. EXCEPTION WILL BE A GULF BREEZE WORKING ITS WAY
ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WHERE A BATCH OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WE EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TO REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT UNDERNEATH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED DRY SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE
ARE EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THESE NUMBERS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW READINGS. SEE THE
CLIMATOLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORD DATA ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ACROSS INLAND AREAS...EXCEPT THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. /21

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO
LONG TERM PERIOD FCST...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS PATTERN...DRY WEATHER
AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FCST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE VICINITY OF EASTERN TEXAS. MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS DAMPEN THE TROUGH A BIT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SURFACE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINING
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DAILY HIGHS SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE AROUND THE MIDDLE 80S...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD. EARLY MORNING LOWS AVERAGING FROM NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TO NORMAL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME...MAINLY RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. /12

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. A MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST TO EAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /21

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...HERE ARE THE MIN TEMP RECORDS (R) AND FORECAST TEMPS
(F) PROJECTED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...

MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT...(R) 49/1960 - (F) 51
PENSACOLA AIRPORT...(R) 53/1882-1960-2002 - (F) 55
CRESTVIEW SIKES AIRPORT...(R) 47 - (F) 44
ANDALUSIA AL...(R) 44 - (F) 48
EVERGREEN COOP...(R) 47 - (F) 45
GREENVILLE AL...(R) 46 - (F) 45
BREWTON AL...(R) 47 - (F) 45
THOMASVILLE AL...(R) 43 - (F) 48
WAYNESBORO MS...(R) 43 - (F) 49
WIGGINS MS...(R) 47 - (F) 51

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL TO
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH
AS DURATION...ERC AND KBDI VALUES WILL NOT BE MET FOR RED FLAG
CRITERIA. GOOD DISPERSIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY VALUES RANGING FROM
AROUND 45 TO AROUND 75. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND OTHER FOG PRONE
AREAS WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE HALF OF A MILE. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      51  82  57  83  60 /  00  00  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   55  81  62  82  64 /  00  00  05  05  10
DESTIN      59  78  67  77  68 /  00  00  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   45  84  52  86  57 /  00  00  05  05  10
WAYNESBORO  49  85  53  86  56 /  00  00  05  05  10
CAMDEN      46  85  53  86  56 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   44  83  51  87  55 /  00  00  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/DS
21/CL