Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 132115
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
415 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A generally zonal flow pattern aloft will prevail across our
forecast area late this afternoon into this evening before
shortwave ridging aloft builds in tonight into early Thursday
morning. A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to nose
westward across the western Atlantic and southeastern U.S. tonight
through Thursday afternoon. Dry weather conditions are anticipated
through late tonight, but there is potential for at least patchy
fog development across much of the region late tonight through the
early morning hours on Thursday as a very shallow saturated
airmass develops near the surface underneath a very dry airmass
aloft. Some of the CAMs are showing a higher signal for areas of
fog across the western FL panhandle and adjacent portions of south
central AL, where we may have to watch for areas of dense fog
development overnight. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid
50s over inland locations and in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees
along the coast.

The shortwave ridge will move to the east of our region during the
day Thursday, with southwest flow aloft taking shape across much
of the area behind this feature in advance of a deepening upper
level trough and low over the Desert Southwest. A subtle shortwave
impulse in the southwest flow aloft will bring a slight
enhancement in deep layer moisture and ascent across portions of
southeast MS and southwest AL late Thursday morning into Thursday
afternoon. We subsequent expect isolated to scattered showers to
develop over the area by Thursday afternoon, with a few
thunderstorms also possible given a relatively unstable airmass
developing over the region. Deep layer shear will be very weak so
no severe weather is anticipated. Highs on Thursday will range in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees over inland areas along and north
of I-1o and in the lower 70s along the coast. A LOW rip current
risk is anticipated along area beaches through Thursday afternoon.
/21

&&

.EXTENDED TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

We are still looking at a more unsettled/wet weather pattern
taking shape across our forecast area late this week and into the
upcoming weekend. Another shortwave impulse embedded within W-SW
flow aloft will move across the southern states, allowing chances
of showers and thunderstorms to ramp up in coverage again across
our area Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A frontal boundary
will also sag southward into interior portions of southeast MS and
southwest AL Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Instability
may become enhanced along the boundary on Friday, with afternoon
MLCAPE values rising around or slightly over 1500 J/KG along with
an increase in deep layer shear. Low level wind fields will be
quite weak, so while a strong to marginally severe storm or two
may be possible along the boundary Friday afternoon, the overall
severe threat looks marginal. The surface boundary may stall near
the coast this weekend, while additional shortwaves translate
over the area within the westerly flow aloft. Convective
development may be more isolated to scattered in nature on
Saturday afternoon. However a stronger impulse lifting over our
region along the boundary on Sunday. PWATs will become enhanced
across much of the area, with showers and thunderstorms becoming
numerous in coverage through the day. It currently appears that
the main concern with these storms will be heavy rainfall and the
potential for some localized flooding as storms train over the
region. 1-2" of rain with locally higher amounts over 3" could
potentially fall within a relatively short period of time with
the Sunday system, so will be monitoring trends closely for the
localized flooding threat. The overall severe potential this
weekend looks low given relatively weak instability and low level
wind fields. A narrow warm sector could develop near the coast
with some enhancement in low level flow by Sunday, so there could
be a low end potential for a few strong to marginally severe
storms then but confidence is low. Things dry out behind the
passing front Sunday night with dry and cooler conditions
following into early to mid next week. /21

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Potential for patchy to areas of fog will devleop along area bays
and sounds the next few nights. Light to moderate southeasterly
to southerly winds will persist through Friday. Winds turn more
southwesterly for the weekend, with westerly to northwesterly
winds expected by Sunday night and Monday after the passage of a
front. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      58  76  65  79  62  78  61  73 /   0  30  20  50  50  20  30  70
Pensacola   60  75  65  77  65  78  64  74 /   0  30  20  30  50  20  20  60
Destin      60  73  65  75  65  77  64  74 /   0  20  10  30  40  20  10  60
Evergreen   51  79  60  81  60  78  58  74 /   0  30  30  60  70  30  30  60
Waynesboro  54  80  64  78  60  76  57  70 /   0  30  20  80  60  20  40  60
Camden      52  80  62  78  60  75  56  72 /   0  30  20  70  70  20  30  60
Crestview   52  77  60  82  62  81  60  77 /   0  20  20  30  50  30  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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