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000
FXUS64 KMOB 172359
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.AVIATION [18.00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE AREA. A PREVAILING MVFR CEILING AROUND 1300 FEET HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED FOR THE PENSACOLA AIRPORT...BUT ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
THROUGH 18.03Z FOR SCT013 DUE TO SATELLITE TRENDS. EXPECT ALL THREE
TAF SITES TO GO UNDER A PREVAILING MVFR CEILING BETWEEN 1100 TO 1300
FEET AFTER 18.03Z...FOLLLOWED BY A PREVAILING IFR CEILING BETWEEN 700
TO 900 FEET AFTER 18.08Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR CRITERIA
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY OR AROUND 08.14Z...AND SCATTER
OUT AROUND 2000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/

SHORT TERM [LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY]...MID LEVEL ENERGY
OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY ATTM WILL MEANDER EAST THROUGH THE FIRST
TWO PERIODS OF THE FORECAST....ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE
EAST...TO OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER ENERGY WILL HELP WITH
PRECIP GENERATION...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AND
POINTS NORTH. TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL EXPECTED. POPS...HAVE WENT AROUND
SEASONAL SOUTH...STEADILY INCREASING AS ONE MOVES NORTH...TOWARDS THE
UPPER ENERGY.

WHILE THE RISK OF A WET MICROBURST REMAINS IN THE LOW CATEGORY...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF A LEAKESVILLE...
CHATOM...GREENVILLE LINE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS MAY CLIP ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ALABAMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. WE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THIS FEATURE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90 BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORNING LOWS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. 16/21

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL
REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BECOME REINFORCED FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY
AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
VERY LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANWHILE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ORIENTED FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY...AS WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. FOR
NOW WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING
THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY TEMPERATURES
IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSISTING EACH DAY. /21

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEX WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  84  68  85  67 /  10  10  10  10  05
PENSACOLA   69  81  69  84  70 /  10  10  10  10  05
DESTIN      69  76  70  82  70 /  10  10  10  10  05
EVERGREEN   65  87  64  88  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  67  86  66  88  66 /  40  10  10  10  05
CAMDEN      66  85  65  89  66 /  40  30  20  20  10
CRESTVIEW   64  84  64  88  64 /  05  10  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$