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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS ERN OK INTO
WRN AR AS CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS MORNING. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW WRAPS AROUND ALONG THE
I-30 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SEEING ANY SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT AS MORNING SHWRS MAY HELP TO QUELL...OR AT LEAST DELAY
INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
REMAIN ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WHERE SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO
CLEAR DUE TO DRY SLOTTING FROM THE SW. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED
SEVERE WORDING IN THE AREAS UNDER SLIGHT RISK AND ALSO BEEFED UP
POPS ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
OTHER EDITS WERE MADE TO SKY GRIDS IN ADDITION TO MAX TEMPS AND
WINDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. FINALLY...WE WILL BE
DOING A MIDDAY SOUNDING AT 19Z TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EXPECTED
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE FOUR STATER REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND TRAILING DISTURBANCES
REACHING SOUTHEAST FROM ITS CENTER...AND WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
REACHING NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA FROM A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. A DRY
SLOT OVER PARTS OF EAST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FOR KLFK...KTYR...AND KGGG THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINING TERMINAL SITES INCLUDING
KTXK...KSHV...KMLU...AND KELD. AS THE DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM
THE TERMINAL SITES WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR AND PERIODS OF VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON WARMING AND MOISTURE
RETURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS PROVIDE AS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA AND LATER INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND DOWN TO IFR
FOR MOST ALL SITES OVERNIGHT BEFORE 17/06 UTC. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH 8 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 17/00 UTC LOWERING TO 6 TO 11 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18/00 UTC. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  68  85  71  89 /  40  20  20  20  10
MLU  82  67  84  70  87 /  40  30  30  30  10
DEQ  75  64  82  67  86 /  70  30  30  30  10
TXK  77  67  83  70  87 /  70  30  30  30  10
ELD  78  65  83  68  87 /  60  30  30  30  10
TYR  82  69  86  71  89 /  40  10  10  10  10
GGG  82  68  86  71  89 /  40  20  10  10  10
LFK  86  70  88  72  90 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/06