National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 180932
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
432 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE KEEPING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
REGION...AND EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID 70S DURG THE
PREDAWN HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AND PERHAPS EXTREME NW LA. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MENTION
IN FCST. AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVHD THIS AFTN... THIS GOOD
HEADSTART ON TEMPS WILL FURTHER WARM QUICKLY AS CLOUDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY...AND AFTN TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR THE 90
DEGREE MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH A FURTHER NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THIS PLACEMENT
SHOULD KEEP THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL AWAY
FROM THE CWA THRU AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM LEAVING IN
ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION NORTH OF I-30...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURES ACROSS REGION...WITH AFTN TEMPS RISING
TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED
CHANCE OF TSTMS INTO REGION TUE AFTN...INTO WED...AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL LA WED
NIGHT/THUR AND FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE POPS AS AIRMASS APPEARS TO
STABILIZE SOMEWHAT. STORMS WILL LACK INTENSE LOW LVL SHEAR OF
RECENT EVENTS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR A FEW SVR STORMS
TO OCCUR./VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE LOW MVFR CIGS AND A FEW IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
LOWER E TX AND NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
N AFFECTING THE SHV/MLU AND SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. ALSO SEEING
SOME 3-6SM VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/BR...BUT NOT EXPECTING THESE
VSBYS TO DROP MUCH ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW CIGS ENCOMPASS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS UNTIL AFTER 16Z...AT WHICH CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AND BECOME A VFR CU FIELD. THE CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING BY EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A CIRRUS SHIELD FROM SCT
CONVECTION OVER WCNTRL TX/WRN OK WILL SPREAD E OVER THE REGION. A
30-40KT SWRLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN THE NWD
ADVECTION OF MVFR CIGS INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR S
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18-22KTS AFTER 15Z
OVER E TX/WRN LA. WINDS WILL NOT DIMINISH MUCH AFTER 00Z OVER E
TX/WRN LA...BUT WILL BECOME 5-10KTS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA. /15/

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  88  70  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  88  72  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  88  70  88  69  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  89  70  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  88  71  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  89  69  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  90  70  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  91  71  89  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$